Assessing the impacts of climate variability and climate change on biodiversity in Lake Nakuru, Kenya

Abstract

Wambui MB, Opere A, Githaiga MJ, Karanja FK. 2017. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and climate change on biodiversity in Lake Nakuru, Kenya. Bonorowo Wetlands 1: 13-24. This study evaluates the impacts of the raised water levels and the flooding of Lake Nakuru and its surrounding areas on biodiversity, specifically, the phytoplankton and lesser flamingo communities, due to climate change and climate variability. The study was to review and analyze noticed climatic records from 2000 to 2014. Several methods were used to ascertain the past and current trends of climatic parameters (temperature, rainfall and evaporation), and also the physicochemical characteristics of Lake Nakuru (conductivity, phytoplankton, lesser flamingos and the lake depth). These included time series analysis, and trend analysis, so the Pearson’s correlation analysis was used to show a relationship between the alterations in lake conductivity to alterations in population estimates of the lesser flamingos and the phytoplankton. Data set extracted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Atlas subset) models were subjected to time series analysis method where the future climate scenarios of near surface temperature, rainfall and evaporation were plotted for the period 2017 to 2100 (projection) for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 relative to the baseline period 1971 to 2000 in Lake Nakuru were analysed. The results were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the lesser flamingos and phytoplankton abundance. It was noticed that there was a raise in the mean annual rainfall during the study period (2009 to 2014) which brought the increment in the lake’s surface area from a low area of 31.8 km² in January 2010 to a high of 54.7 km² in Sept 2013, indicating an increment of 22.9 km² (71.92% surface area increment). Mean conductivity of the lake also lessened leading to the loss of phytoplankton on which flamingos feed making them to migrate. A strong positive correlation between conductivity and the lesser flamingo population was noticed signifying that low conductivity affects the growth of phytoplankton and since the lesser flamingos depend on the phytoplankton for their feed, this subsequently revealed that the phytoplankton density could be a notable predictor of the lesser flamingo occurrence in Lake Nakuru. There was also a strong positive correlation noticed between phytoplankton and the lesser flamingo population which confirms that feed availability is a key determining factor of the lesser flamingo distribution in the lake. It is projected that there would be an increment in temperatures, rainfall and evaporation for the period 2017 to 2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 relative to the baseline period 1971 to 2000 obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble. As a result, it is expected that the lake will further increment in surface area and depth by the year 2100 due to increased rainfall thereby affecting the populations of the lesser flamingos and phytoplankton, as the physicochemical factors of the lake will alter as well during the projected period.

The importance of reliable monitoring methods for the management of small, isolated populations

“…However, such breaches are rare as the fence is patrolled and maintained on a daily basis by park fence attendants. The resulting genetic isolation of LNNPs wildlife, together with the nearby large city, intensive agriculture, altered physiochemical characteristics of the lake water, invasive plants and historic heavy metal dumping have resulted in various threats to wildlife (Brenneman, Bagine, Brown, Ndetei, & Louis Jr, 2009;Jumba, Kisia, & Kock, 2007;Kairu, 1996;Kenya Wildlife Service, 2018;Kiprutto, Kangogo, & Kiage, 2018;Kisia, Jumba, & Kock, 2002;Kock et al, 1994;Ng'weno, Mwasi, & Kairu, 2010;Wambui, Opere, Githaiga, & Karanja, 2018).…”

Water Erosion Risk Assessment in the Kenya Great Rift Valley Region

“…Flooding and the adverse effects of soil erosion within the Kenya GRV lakes has been attributed to the geomorphology of the lakes' environment and climatic factors [23]. Research is ongoing to find more definitive explanations for the recent rising levels of these Great Lakes [72,73]. Lakes Baringo and Naivasha are bordered mostly by flats lands while Lakes Bogoria and Nakuru are located in valleys enclosed by eastern and western rift escarpments [17].…”