Assessing the Impacts of Global Warming on Forest Pest Dynamics

Logan, Jesse A.; Régnière, Jacques; Powell, James A.

doi:10.2307/3867985

Cited by 181 publications

(213 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Consistently, numerous studies have recorded the advance of spring emergence in various insect species131415. Furthermore, increasing temperatures may also alter insect mortality1617 by physiologically alleviating cold stress and shortening the period of insects living below the lethal temperature threshold1819. This has been demonstrated in many insect species including moth ( Thaumetopoea pityocampa )20, aphid ( Myzus persicae )21, and butterfly ( Atalopedes campestris )22.…”

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confidence: 69%

Experimental warming and precipitation interactively modulate the mortality rate and timing of spring emergence of a gallmaking Tephritid fly

Peng

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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Global climate change is mostly characterized by temperature increase and fluctuating precipitation events, which may affect the spring phenology and mortality rate of insects. However, the interaction effect of temperature and precipitation on species performance has rarely been examined. Here we studied the response of the gall-making Tephritid fly Urophora stylata (Diptera: Tephritidae) to artificial warming, changes in precipitation, and the presence of galls. Our results revealed a significant interaction effect of warming, precipitation, and galls on the life-history traits of the focal species. Specifically, when the galls were intact, warming had no effect on the phenology and increased the mortality of the fly under decreased precipitation, but it significantly advanced the timing of adult emergence and had no effect on the mortality under increased precipitation. When galls were removed, warming significantly advanced the timing of emergence and increased fly mortality, but precipitation showed no effect on the phenology and mortality. In addition, gall removal significantly increased adult fresh mass for both females and males. Our results indicate that the effect of elevated temperature on the performance of species may depend on other environmental conditions, such as variations in precipitation, and species traits like the formation of galls.

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confidence: 69%

Experimental warming and precipitation interactively modulate the mortality rate and timing of spring emergence of a gallmaking Tephritid fly

Peng

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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“…Many lepidopterans, including Arctiinae species [65], are agricultural pests and changes in range, abundance and phenology of these species may increase the rate of invasion and increase the damage intensity they can cause [66], [67]. Furthermore, climate change can modify patterns of synchronization between larvae and host plants, among adults and flowers, and among the two life stages and their natural enemies [68]. Some tiger moth species are important pollinators of Atlantic Forest plants, including orchids [69], and the lack of synchronization between flowering and pollinating may cause more extinctions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Reduced Effectiveness of Protected Areas under Climate Change Threatens Atlantic Forest Tiger Moths

et al. 2014

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Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future.

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“…Insects are among the primary disturbance agents in these ecosystems and changing climate may alter the range of variation in frequency, extent and magnitude of outbreaks (Volney and Flemming 2000, Dale et al 2001, Logan et al 2003. Insects may be particularly sensitive to climatic change because thermal factors dictate their metabolic rates and influence many aspects of their life cycles.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%