Assessing the Impacts of Wetlands on Discharge and Nutrient Loading: Insights from Restoring Past Wetlands with GIS-Based Analysis and Modeling

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Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two major factors that alter hydrological processes. The upper reaches of the Tarim River, situated in the northwest region of China, experience a dry and less rainy climate and are significantly influenced by human activities. This study comprehensively assessed the impacts of individual and combined climate changes and LUCCs on streamflow. Three general circulation models (GCMs) were utilized to predict future climate changes under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585). Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) was employed to predict future LUCC under three scenarios (i.e., ecological protection, historical trend, and farmland development). Streamflow for the period 2021–2050 was simulated using the calibrated MIKE SHE model with multiple scenarios. The results showed that from 2021 to 2050, increments in both average annual precipitation and average annual temperature under the three SSPs were predicted to lead to an increased streamflow. In comparison to the conditions observed in 2000, under three LUCC scenarios for 2030, the grassland area decreased by 1.04% to 1.21%, while the farmland area increased by 1.97% to 2.26%, resulting in reduced streamflow. The related changes analysis indicated that the variation in streamflow during winter is most significant, followed by spring. The study predicted that climate change would increase streamflow, while LUCC would decrease it. Due to the greater impact of LUCC, considering the combined effect of both factors, runoff would decrease. The contribution analysis indicated that climate change contributed between −7.16% and −18.66%, while LUCC contributed between 107.16% and 118.66%.

Section: Accuracy Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow under Multiple Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper Reaches of the Tarim River in Northwest China

Han,

Xue,

et al. 2023

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Dynamic Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Vegetation in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China

Han,

Xue,

et al. 2024

Analyzing the changes in vegetation under different factors is crucial for ecological protection in arid areas. The spatial-temporal variations of vegetation in the lower reaches of the Tarim River (LRTR) from 2000 to 2020, were analyzed using the Theil-Sen estimator and the Mann-Kendall test. The future trends of NDVI are projected to use the Hurst exponent method. The driving mechanisms of vegetation changes were analyzed using the GeoDetector method and multivariate residual analysis. The NDVI values in the LRTR significantly increased during the study period, indicating good vegetation recovery. The overall vegetation level remains poor and was primarily concentrated around the riverine areas. There is still a risk of vegetation degradation in most areas of the future LRTR. Compared to climate change, vegetation was more affected by human activities. Human activities have helped restore the riparian vegetation and prevented the degradation of vegetation far from the river. Therefore, distance from river channels is the strongest explanatory factor (q = 0.078) for vegetation changes, followed by precipitation, and temperature, while changes in slope have minimal impact on vegetation. Statistics have found that when two factors are combined, their impact on vegetation change is stronger. These findings are beneficial for identifying vegetation evolution patterns in LRTR and providing theoretical support for the government to carry out ecological restoration.

Selection, Planning, and Modelling of Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Mitigation

Griffiths,

Borne,

Semadeni-Davies

et al. 2024

The use of nature-based solutions (NBSs) for hazard mitigation is increasing. In this study, we review the use of NBSs for flood mitigation using a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis framework for commonly used NBSs. Approaches reviewed include retention and detention systems, bioretention systems, landcover and soil management, river naturalisation and floodplain management, and constructed and natural wetlands. Existing tools for identification and quantification of direct benefits and co-benefits of NBSs are then reviewed. Finally, approaches to the modelling of NBSs are discussed, including the type of model and model parameterisation. After outlining knowledge gaps within the current literature and research, a roadmap for development, modelling, and implementation of NBSs is presented.