Assessing the importance of spatio‐temporal <scp>RCM</scp> resolution when estimating sub‐daily extreme precipitation under current and future climate conditions

Pinya, Maria Antonia Sunyer; Luchner, Jakob; Onof, Christian; Madsen, Henrik; Arnbjerg‐Nielsen, Karsten

doi:10.1002/joc.4733

Cited by 26 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 61 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The final conversion factor to go from a near instantaneous point source rain gauge measurement to the 1 h and 0.11 • resolution model data becomes the product of the time reduction factor of the gauge data and the space and time reduction factor of HIPRAD, as shown in the last line of Table 2. These factors compare well to previously applied area reduction factors (Sunyer et al, 2016), e.g. (Wilson, 1990) presented a factor 1.279 for hourly precipitation, although at 24 h duration the factor only decreased to 1.066 indicating a slightly too small factor in our current study.…”

Section: Comparison Across Spatio-temporal Scalessupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Olsson et al (2015) presented increasing agreement of modelled and observed hourly precipitation with higher spatial resolution, and 6 km resolution of a parametrised RCM (RCA3) is in approximate agreement with gauge observations. Similar results were obtained for Denmark, where also future projections were found to show larger increases in extreme precipitation for higher spatial resolution and shorter temporal aggregations (Sunyer et al, 2016). Convective permitting regional models at less than about 5 km resolution, have been shown to better simulate the peak structure of extreme events (Kendon et al, 2014), better agreement with observations regarding the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensity (Fosser et al, 2015;Prein et al, 2015), as well as improved performance of extreme hourly events (Ban et al, 2018).…”

supporting

confidence: 74%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution

Berg

Christensen

Klehmet

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Regional climate model simulations have routinely been applied to assess changes in precipitation extremes at daily time steps. However, shorter sub-daily extremes have not received as much attention. This is likely because of the limited availability of high temporal resolution data, both for observations and for model outputs. Here, summertime depth duration frequencies of a sub-set of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble is evaluated with observations for several European countries for durations of one to 12 h. Most of the model simulations strongly underestimate 10-year depths for durations up to a few hours, but do better on 12 h durations. All models fail in reproducing observed spatial patterns over Germany for durations shorter than 12 h, but all reproduce the pattern at least partly at 12 h duration. Large-scale driven spatial patterns, such as the extreme depths in southern France are better captured also at shorter durations, albeit severely underestimated. Projected changes are assessed by relating relative depth changes to mean temperature changes. A strong relationship with temperature is found across sub-regions of Europe, the emission scenario and future time period. However, there is an equally strong dependency on the global and regional model applied, with a spread in scaling of around 1–10 %/K at 12 h duration, and generally higher values at shorter durations.

show abstract

Section: Comparison Across Spatio-temporal Scalessupporting

confidence: 90%

supporting

confidence: 74%

Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution

Berg

Christensen

Klehmet

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This is in spite of the similarities of several of the models. For example, the convective parameterization is similar for HIRHAM5, REMO2009, and RACMO22E, which are all based on Tiedtke (1989) but with differences in their settings and in additions to the parameterizations. Further, HIRHAM5, RACMO22E, and RCA4 share similar dynamical cores (originating from the HIRLAM NWP model).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution

Berg

Christensen

Klehmet

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Regional climate model simulations have routinely been applied to assess changes in precipitation extremes at daily time steps. However, shorter sub-daily extremes have not received as much attention. This is likely because of the limited availability of high temporal resolution data, both for observations and for model outputs. Here, summertime depth duration frequencies of a subset of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11∘ ensemble are evaluated with observations for several European countries for durations of 1 to 12 h. Most of the model simulations strongly underestimate 10-year depths for durations up to a few hours but perform better at longer durations. The spatial patterns over Germany are reproduced at least partly at a 12 h duration, but all models fail at shorter durations. Projected changes are assessed by relating relative depth changes to mean temperature changes. A strong relationship with temperature is found across different subregions of Europe, emission scenarios and future time periods. However, the scaling varies considerably between different combinations of global and regional climate models, with a spread in scaling of around 1–10 % K−1 at a 12 h duration and generally higher values at shorter durations.

show abstract

“…The determined threshold values for each GCM historical run are also applied to the future scenarios that enables the future runs to have a different wet day frequency compared to the historical runs. In this study, 0.1 mm is considered as a threshold of the observations to distinguish a wet day from a dry day (Olsson et al ., ; Sunyer et al ., ; Gudmundsson et al ., ) and determines the frequency of wet days. For consistency, rainfall amounts in observations and simulations are all set to 0 mm when they are smaller than the specific thresholds.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on characteristics of daily‐scale rainfall events based on nine selected GCMs under four CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Qu River basin, east China

Gao

Booij

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change significantly influences characteristics of rainfall events including rainfall depth, rainfall duration, inter‐event time and temporal patterns that directly affect water resources management, flood defence and hydraulic structure design. In this study, a framework is proposed to analyse daily‐scale rainfall event characteristics based on global climate model (GCM) simulations. This framework includes bias correction of raw GCM‐simulated rainfall series, selection of good‐performing bias‐corrected GCMs based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and evaluation of selected GCMs' skills in simulating rainfall event characteristics and finally assessment of changes in rainfall event characteristics in the future. In this study, 17 GCMs, four representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and two future periods (i.e., 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) are considered. After bias correction of the GCMs using the monthly‐scale double gamma distribution, 9 out of 17 GCMs with MAPE values smaller than 20% in the historical period 1971–2000 are selected. In general, these selected GCMs well capture the rainfall characteristics of different rainfall event classes. The multi‐model ensembles suggest that compared to the historical period, the frequency of rainfall events with an extreme depth, short duration and long inter‐event time will increase in the two future periods and the change in 2071–2100 is generally larger than that in 2041–2070, indicating that more extreme climate conditions may occur in Qu River basin in the future. Moreover, the temporal patterns of heavy rainfall events will become more non‐uniform with more concentrated peak rainfall. The frequency of the delayed rainfall type (i.e., peaks occurring at the end of the rainfall event) will increase in the future, which can probably cause more severe floods and is very detrimental to flood defence in this study area.

show abstract

Assessing the importance of spatio‐temporal RCM resolution when estimating sub‐daily extreme precipitation under current and future climate conditions

Cited by 26 publications

References 61 publications

Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution

Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution

Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution

Impacts of climate change on characteristics of daily‐scale rainfall events based on nine selected GCMs under four CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Qu River basin, east China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About