“…The paradigmatic example of water partitioning across a 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl- sn -phosphatidylcholine (POPC) bilayer provides a cogent illustration of fortuitous cancellation of errors, the TIP3P model of water overestimating both the differential solvation free energy between the aqueous and the hydrophobic media, and the diffusivity, yet supplying an estimate of P m of (141 ± 2) × 10 –4 cm/s, in very good agreement with the experimental value of (130 ± 4) × 10 –4 cm/s . Still, with nearly a decade of hindsight, and of membrane-permeability estimates from first-principles, using μs-long biased MD simulations for a variety of permeants, ,,− ,,,,− it is a fair assessment that current academic force fields are capable of supplying, in the best-case scenario, quantities within 1 order of magnitude from the consensus target experimental measurements. In general, however, discrepancies as large as two to 3 orders of magnitude are not uncommon, underscoring the necessity of more sophisticated potential energy functionseven though rigorous discrimination between the different sources of errors burdening the membrane-permeability estimates has remained elusive.…”