Assessing the link between adolescent fertility and urban crime

Abstract

We use data of neighborhoods of Bogotá to assess the causal relation between their adolescent fertility and their homicide rates. We find that neighborhoods with high adolescent fertility rates, and that have low secondary enrollment and high crime rates at the moment the children of their teen mothers become teenagers, are more likely to have higher homicide rates in the future, when those children reach their peak crime ages, estimated to be between 18 to 26 years old in violent cities of Colombia. We did not find evidence of a positive effect on crime when the adolescent fertility rates are either isolated, or only coupled with low school enrollment, or high crime rates. We also find that increases in the secondary school enrollment always reduce the homicide rate. The results are robust to various specifications, including measurement error corrections, and the modeling of the spatial autocorrelation of homicides.

The effect of adult criminals' spillovers on the likelihood of youths becoming criminals

“…As for the homicide rate in 2009 as the homicide rate for 1999, 2002, 2006 and 2008, it can be appreciate a spatial concentration of the homicides in the north and west of Medellin, especially in districts 12 de Octubre, Aranjuez, Castilla and San Javier, among these ten years. This very interesting pattern of crime, homicides are committed in the same places, which have been stressed by Gaviria et al (2010) and Llorente and Rivas (2005) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Homicides per 100,000 people 1999, 2002, 2006 and 2008 The spatial concentration of homicide rate and crime in general, has important impacts over the quality life of people. Nonetheless, this effect is not unique, the spatial concentration of the crime can have influence over the dynamic of neighborhoods because the persistence can produce externalities over the people who live in these suburbs in many ways, for example, it can create a low social capital.…”

“…Although, Colombian violence has been traditionally high due to existence of guerrilla groups, drug business took off in the late 1970s and early 1980s, fueled initially the emergence of organized crime to support the business, guerrilla and paramilitary groups, to care for both the entire business chain. Figure 2 shows the evolution of the homicide rate in Medellin over the period 1987-2009. As it is stressed by Gaviria et al (2010) and , we can divide the history of homicides in Medellin in three periods: in the first one, from mid 1980s to early 1990s, the homicide rate began to rise and continued increasing until the early 1990s, when the homicide rate reached its highest level and began a persistent decline reaching levels not seeing since late seventies. Gaviria et al (2010) stressed that the peak of the homicide rate observed in the early 1990s was due to the boom of the Medellin drug cartel, and it s declaration of war to the government and other illegal groups (Gaviria et al, 2010).…”

“…On the other hand, Gaviria, Medina and Tamayo (2010) studied the link between adolescent fertility rates, school attendance and the persistence of Crime in Medellin. In fact, they find that actually neighborhoods with (i) high effective adolescent fertility rates, (ii) low secondary enrollment, and (iii) high crime rates at the moment the children of their teen mothers become teenagers, are more likely to have higher homicide rates in the future, when those children reach their peak crime ages, estimated to be between 18 to 26 years old in violent cities of Colombia.…”

The effect of crime on adolescent fertility in Colombia

“…In opposition to the hypothesis of this article, one could argue that fertility is a motivating factor of crime, which would generate a problem of simultaneity or reverse causality. Gaviria et al (2010) argue in this respect that fertility can influence crime only in the long term, in particular, once the children of these adolescents have reached an age where they can commit a crime.…”