Assessing The Long- and Short-Run Asymmetrical Effects of Climate Change On Rice Production: Empirical Evidence From India

Abstract

For a couple of decades, environmental change has arisen as a ubiquitous problem and gained environmentalist's attention across the globe due to its long-term harmful effect on agricultural production, food supply, water supply and livelihoods of rural poor. The primary objective of this study is to explore the asymmetrical dynamic relationship between climate change and production of rice and controlled variables covering 1991–2018 by employing the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and Granger causality approach.in India. The NARDL findings demonstrate a significant negative relationship between mean temperature and production of rice in the long run while positively influencing rice production in the short run. Moreover, positive shocks in rainfall and carbon emission have a negative and significant effect on India's rice production in the long and short run. In comparison, negative shock in rainfall has a significant positive impact on rice production in the long and short run. Wald test confirms the asymmetrical relationship between climate change and rice production. The Granger causality test shows feedback effect among mean temperature, decreasing rainfall, increasing carbon emission, and rice production. While no causal relationship between increasing temperature and decreasing carbon emission. Based on our empirical investigations, some critical policy implications emerged. To sustain rice production, improve irrigation infrastructure through increasing public investment and develop climate-resilient seeds varieties to cope with climate change. Along with, at the district level government should provide proper training to farmers regarding the usage of pesticides, proper amount of fertiliser and irrigation systems.

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