Assessing the performance of SN-SPI and SPI and the trend assessment of drought using the XI correlation technique over Iran

Ghasemi, Mohammad Mehdi; Mokarram, Marzieh; Zarei, Amin

doi:10.2166/wcc.2022.176

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 42 publications

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“…In contrast, precipitation assessment of the Weihe River basin in China indicates that 1960-2970 and 1980-1990 were two wet decades, where precipitation was 5.51% higher than the long-term average precipitation [49]. Similarly, a study from 1967-2019 in Iran explained that the SPI for the observed stations decreased [50]. SPI 3 projections in the Pacific region of Colombia between 2022 and 2040 reported increased wetness under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections

et al. 2023

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The Pacific region of Colombia is known to be one of the most vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. A study was conducted using standardized precipitation index (SPI) analyses to understand the potential changes in precipitation in this region during the 21st century. The analyses were conducted using historical precipitation data from 1950 to 2005 and projected precipitation data from 2022 to 2100 under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results of the study showed that compared to historical data, SPI3 precipitation in this region is predicted to increase by 2040 under both climatic scenarios. However, in the 2041–2070 period, the region is expected to be wetter under RCP 8.5, although the difference between the two scenarios was not statistically significant. Similarly, SPI 6 precipitation is predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 and 2071–2100 periods under both scenarios. SPI 12 precipitation is also predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 period under RCP 4.5. In the 2041–2070 period, dryness is predicted to be more frequent under RCP 4.5, and wetness is predicted under RCP 8.5. The findings of this study can help in determining the most pertinent reference periods and computation time increments for evaluating the effects of future climate change on agricultural production and food security in the Pacific region of Colombia. It suggests that changes in precipitation patterns are likely to occur in the coming decades, which may significantly impact crop growth, water availability, and other aspects of agricultural production.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections

et al. 2023

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A robust ensemble drought index: construction and assessment

Ren

Wang

et al. 2022

Nat Hazards

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Drought indices have been commonly used in drought monitoring and assessments, but selecting the most appropriate one under different geographical and climatic conditions is difficult. We constructed a multi-timescale integrated drought index, the Ensemble Drought Index (EDI), for more robust and reliable drought assessments with the widely used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the selfcalibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using the Thornthwaite and the Penman-Monteith methods. The EDI can more accurately describe the major historical drought events, and has high and significant correlation with historical monthly soil moisture and annual runoff data all over China, regardless of regional differences. in region among those indices participating in integration. We also showed that the EDI greatly improved monitoring accuracy in the arid and semi-arid regions of China, where the assessments are always thorny. In the meantime, we revealed how the reference period of fitting statistical parameters affects the accuracy of drought assessments, and concluded that the long-term stationary climate variables series (i.e., without trend) can bring more accurate conclusions.

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Spatial evaluation of climate change-induced drought characteristics in different climates based on De Martonne Aridity Index in Iran

et al. 2023

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In recent years, greenhouse gas emissions have caused extensive changes in the global climate. Climate change leads to extreme events, such as droughts. The present study investigates precipitation and temperature variations and the past and future drought characteristics in Iran through data from 40 synoptic stations and 33 general circulation models (GCMs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As a first step, the country of Iran was classified into different climatic regions based on De Martonne aridity index. The GCMs were ranked using TOPSIS in four climatic regions and an ensemble of top ten GCMs was used in each region. Furthermore, the homogeneity of monthly precipitation was studied in the baseline and future periods. Meteorological drought was calculated through the standardized precipitation index (SPI), deriving drought severity, peak, and duration based on run theory. The results revealed that precipitation will reduce in future periods in the majority of Iran and temperature will reduce in the south and southeast and will increase in the northwest and north of Iran. Furthermore, the highest drought severity and peaks will occur in semi-arid and arid regions, while the longest drought duration will happen in the southeast and west of Iran. Overall, future droughts are found to have higher severity, duration, peaks, and standard deviation than the baseline period. Also, the results showed a reducing trend of the SPI values in northwestern regions, while the other stations indicated no significant trend.

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Assessing the performance of SN-SPI and SPI and the trend assessment of drought using the XI correlation technique over Iran

Cited by 5 publications

References 42 publications

Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections

Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections

A robust ensemble drought index: construction and assessment

Spatial evaluation of climate change-induced drought characteristics in different climates based on De Martonne Aridity Index in Iran

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