Assessing the reliability of species distribution projections in climate change research

Santini, Luca; Benítez‐López, Ana; Maiorano, Luigi; Čengić, Mirza; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.

doi:10.1111/ddi.13252

Cited by 164 publications

(133 citation statements)

References 111 publications

(178 reference statements)

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“…Our models also suggested that the widespread Brazilian peppertree ( Schinus terebinthifolia ) may lose up to 47% of its original habitats. These results need to be interpreted with caution, since all species that were predicted to lose 100% of BAH have small sample sizes (n < 50, Supplementary Table S1 ), which is one of the main determinants of model accuracy 51 . Some species tend to be favored by certain climate change scenarios under full dispersal scenario 52 , 53 , such as here the medicinal species Varronia curassavica , with an increase of BAH up to 230%; the ornamental species Epidendrum fulgens up to 264% and the forage species Indigofera sabulicola up to 387%.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ENMs are widely used to forecast the distribution of species across geographic space and time. Building meaningful models to estimate the future distribution of species for an uncertain future requires very specific decisions and interpretations with extreme caution 51 , 77 , 78 . Several uncertainties and complexities are related to our study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

Lima

Joner

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5–56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3–41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8–84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7–64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

Lima

Joner

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…the conversion of water availability to respiration via specific leaf area, and of temperature to metabolism via wood density and height), therefore reducing the risk of establishing spurious relationships (e.g. Fourcade et al., 2018; Santini et al., 2021). Assuming that these models capture the causal relationships between climate and community mean trait values, the relationships are in principle transferable to future scenarios (Dormann et al., 2012; Yang et al., 2016, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trait‐based projections of climate change effects on global biome distributions

Boonman

Huijbregts

Benítez‐López

et al. 2021

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Climate change will likely modify the global distribution of biomes, but the magnitude of change is debated. Here, we followed a trait‐based, statistical approach to model the influence of climate change on the global distribution of biomes. Location Global. Methods We predicted the global distribution of plant community mean specific leaf area (SLA), height and wood density as a function of climate and soil characteristics using an ensemble of statistical models. Then, we predicted the probability of occurrence of biomes as a function of the three traits with a classification model. Finally, we projected changes in plant community mean traits and corresponding changes in biome distributions to 2070 for low (RCP 2.6; +1.2°C) and extreme (RCP 8.5; +3.5°C) future climate change scenarios. Results We estimated that under the low climate change scenario (sub)tropical biomes will expand (forest by 18%–22%, grassland by 9%–14% and xeric shrubland by 5%–8%), whereas tundra and temperate broadleaved and mixed forests contract by 30%–34% and 16%–21%, respectively. Our results also indicate that over 70%–75% of the current distribution of temperate broadleaved and mixed forests and temperate grasslands is projected to shift northwards. These changes become amplified under the extreme climate change scenario in which tundra is projected to lose more than half of its current extent. Main conclusions Our results indicate considerable imminent alterations in the global distribution of biomes, with possibly major consequences for life on Earth. The level of accuracy of our model given the limited input data and the insights on how trait–environment relationships can influence biome distributions suggest that trait‐based correlative approaches are a promising tool to forecast vegetation change and to provide an independent, complementary line of evidence next to process‐based vegetation models.

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“…In our case these two metrics revealed good results. However, discrimination accuracy metrics may suggest a very good model while of poor transferability (Torres et al, 2015) and/or lead to relationships without a biological meaning (Santini et al, 2021). Using only Ukrainian-based records, we tested our models by extrapolating predictions of occurrence and habitat suitability to neighbouring areas, for instance to Krasnodar Province of the Russian Federation (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

LONG-TERM MONITORING OF THE EUROPEAN ROLLER (CORACIAS GARRULUS) IN UKRAINE: IS CLIMATE BEHIND THE CHANGES?

Shupova¹,

Tytar

2021

Preprint

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Since the 1980s there has been a long-term decline in numbers and contraction of range in Europe, including Ukraine. Our specific goals were to reconstruct the climatically suitable range of the species in Ukraine before the 1980s, gain better knowledge on its requirements, compare the past and current suitable areas, infer the regional and environmental variables that best explain its occurrence, and quantify the overall range change in the country. For these purposes we created a database consisting of 347 records of the roller made ever in Ukraine. We employed a species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to hindcast changes in the suitable range of the roller during historical times across Ukraine and to derive spatially explicit predictions of climatic suitability for the species under current climate. SDMs were created for three time intervals (before 1980, 1985-2009, 2010-2021) using corresponding climate data extracted from the TerraClim database. SDMs show a decline of suitable for rollers areas in the country from 85 to 46%. Several factors, including land cover and use, human population density and climate, that could have contributed to the decline of the species in Ukraine were considered. We suggest climate change and its speed (velocity) have been responsible for shaping the contemporary home range of the European roller.

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Assessing the reliability of species distribution projections in climate change research

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 164 publications

References 111 publications

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

Trait‐based projections of climate change effects on global biome distributions

LONG-TERM MONITORING OF THE EUROPEAN ROLLER (CORACIAS GARRULUS) IN UKRAINE: IS CLIMATE BEHIND THE CHANGES?

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