Assessing the Risk of Insect Outbreaks

Berryman, Alan A.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-5080-4_7

Cited by 7 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Here, we want to also note that large CL epidemics occurred during or shortly after the cold ENSO phase, a time when, on average, SF vector abundance is the smallest across ENSO phases. Nevertheless, as observed in the raw data, the cold ENSO phase is a time when SF vectors are also prone to show extremely large abundance records per trap-night, which might reflect insect population outbreaks [70] , [71] , i.e., sudden extraordinary increases in vector abundance [72] . Thus, the occurrence of large CL epidemics during or shortly after the cold ENSO phase might indicate a role for SF vector outbreaks on CL epidemics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Niño in Panamá

et al. 2014

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BackgroundCutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission.Methodology and FindingsWe studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000–2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases.ConclusionAssociation patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Niño in Panamá

et al. 2014

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“…Sudden extraordinary changes in species abundance (i.e., outbreaks), have been mostly studied in insects, primarily agricultural pests (Berryman & Stark 1985), but also medically important species, especially mosquitoes (Chase & Knight 2003;Yang et al 2009a). In fact, it could be argued that insect outbreaks have underpinned the wider ecological discussion on whether populations undergo density dependent-regulation (Chaves & Koenraadt 2010;Nicholson 1958).…”

Section: Hot Environments and Mosquito Outbreaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments

et al. 2014

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Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) is a common pantropical urban mosquito, vector of dengue, Yellow Fever and chikungunya viruses. Studies have shown Ae. aegypti abundance to be associated with environmental fluctuations, revealing patterns such as the occurrence of delayed mosquito outbreaks, i.e., sudden extraordinary increases in mosquito abundance, following transient extreme high temperatures. Here, we use a two-stage (larvae and adults) matrix model to propose a mechanism for environmental signal canalization into demographic parameters of Ae. aegypti that could explain delayed high temperature induced mosquito outbreaks. We performed model simulations using parameters estimated from a weekly time series from Thailand, assuming either independent or autocorrelated environments. For autocorrelated environments, we found that long delays in the association between the onset of "hot" environments and mosquito outbreaks (10 weeks, as observed in Thailand) can be generated when "hot" environments sequentially trigger a larval survival decrease and over-compensatory fecundity increase, which lasts for the whole "hot" period, in conjunction with a larval survival increase followed by a fecundity decrease when the environment returns to "normal". This result was not observed for independent environments. Finally, we discuss our results implications for prospective entomological research and vector management under changing environments.

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“…It is widely argued that site conditions and climatic factors, such as drought, play a major role in triggering these outbreaks by affecting host-plant suitability (nitrogen or antiherbivore compounds, or both) (White, 1974;Rhoades, 1983;Berryman & Stark, 1985). It is widely argued that site conditions and climatic factors, such as drought, play a major role in triggering these outbreaks by affecting host-plant suitability (nitrogen or antiherbivore compounds, or both) (White, 1974;Rhoades, 1983;Berryman & Stark, 1985).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Damaging infestations, or outbreaks, of phytophagous insects frequently occur in temperate forests. It is widely argued that site conditions and climatic factors, such as drought, play a major role in triggering these outbreaks by affecting host-plant suitability (nitrogen or antiherbivore compounds, or both) (White, 1974;Rhoades, 1983;Berryman & Stark, 1985). This view is supported by reports of insect outbreaks on sites where the soils are shallow and freely drained, such as ridge tops, or soils with poor drainage, such as deep peats (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The growth and survival of Panolis flammea larvae in the absence of predators on Scots pine and lodgepole pine

Watt

1989

Ecological Entomology

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1. The survival, growth and development of larvae of the pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea (D & S ) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) were examined as part of a study to determine (i) why damaging outbreaks of this insect in Scotland are frequent on lodgepole pine but do not occur on Scots pine, and (ii) why outbreaks are associated with areas of deep unflushed peat.2. Larvae were studied inside predator exclusion cages on mature pine trees in Elchies forest where a major infestation occurred in 1978-79.3. Surprisingly, larval survival was generally greatest on Scots pine and lowest on lodgepole growing in deep peat. Also, larval growth and development were greater on Scots than lodgepole pine and were unaffected by the type of soil in which the lodgepole pine was growing.4. Larval performance was generally better on lodgepole pine that had been thinned and received fertilizer. 5. Larval survival was affected by pine shoot stage during egg hatch in one of the two years in which this was examined.6. Observations on P.flammea pupae were confused by disease, parasitism and probably by differences in weight loss caused by differences in larval development. Parasitism by ichneumonid parasitoids was recorded on Scots pine but not on lodgepole pine. 7. It was concluded that (i) the absence of pine beauty moth outbreaks on Scots pine, and (ii) the occurrence of outbreaks on lodgepole pine growing in deep unflushed peat were not the result of lodgepole pine growing in deep peat being a more suitable host plant than lodgepole pine and Scots pine growing elsewhere. It seems more likely that the observed outbreak behaviour of P.flammea in Scotland is associated with differences in predation and parasitism in plantations of difference host plants and in plantations of lodgepole pine growing in different soils.

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Assessing the Risk of Insect Outbreaks

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Niño in Panamá

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Niño in Panamá

Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments

The growth and survival of Panolis flammea larvae in the absence of predators on Scots pine and lodgepole pine

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