Assessing the signals of the Hale solar cycle in temperature proxy records from Northern Fennoscandia

Ogurtsov, M. G.; Veretenenko, S. V.; Helama, Samuli; Jalkanen, Risto; Lindholm, Markus

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2020.07.038

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Temperature is one of the key parameters of climate change. Numerous statistical studies have found similar periodicities in the temperature proxy records and solar variations during the Holocene, revealing the possible linkage between temperature and solar activity on centennial-to-decadal scales (Soon, 2005;Zhao and Feng, 2014;Liu et al, 2019;Huang et al, 2020;Ogurtsov et al, 2020;Brehm et al, 2021). In the 20th century, strong correlations between solar irradiance and the temperature of the mid-upper troposphere are also found based on the proxy data (Wang et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 70%

The possible impact of solar activity on the summer temperature distribution over Eurasia

2023

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The effect of solar activity on the regional temperature in winter has been widely discussed. However, whether the summer temperature of land in the northern hemisphere is sensitive to solar activity remains to be further investigated. In this study, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, spectrum analysis, and correlation analysis are employed to reveal the possible link between the summer temperature distribution over Eurasian land (0–180°E and 20°N−80°N) and solar activity. The results show that the corresponding time series of the second pattern significantly exhibits an 11-year solar periodicity. Its tripolar temperature distribution is similar to the correlation maps between the temperature and sunspot number (SSN). Particularly, Central Asia (50°E−90°E and 30°N−60°N) is the key response region over Eurasia. The temperature of Central Asia shows a weak but significant negative correlation with SSN. Further analysis of atmospheric circulation indicates that the solar-induced cyclonic and negative geopotential height anomalies in Central Asia weaken the high-pressure ridge on the southwest side and strengthen northwesterly winds. At the same time, with the increase in the cloud cover and the decrease of shortwave radiation, the temperature is lowered. Due to the impact of solar activity, the upper atmosphere over Eurasia forms a wave train-like structure, resulting in a tripolar temperature distribution pattern. On the other hand, the 21-year sliding correlation results suggest that the connection between solar activity and the temperature in Central Asia was strong and decadal stable until 1980. Whereas the temperature and atmospheric circulations in high latitudes become more sensitive to solar activity after 1980. Anyway, solar activity still can be considered a non-negligible factor in the prediction of the summer temperature in Eurasia.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 70%

The possible impact of solar activity on the summer temperature distribution over Eurasia

2023

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“…Evidence of such changes have been reported by some authors (Tinsley and Deen, 1991; Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, 2012; Veretenenko and Pudovkin, 1993). Ogurtsov et al (2020) hypothesized that the quasi 22-year periodicity in Fennoscandian summer temperature could be a result of solar influence mediated by natural variability in ocean circulation. The 20–30 years periodicity in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(11) Ogurtsov et al (2020) found stable and statistically significant correlation between a quasi 22-year solar cycle of Hale and the summer temperature variability over the region of Northern Fennoscandia (66.4–70°N, 14–35.3°E) over the AD 1700–2000 period. Ogurtsov et al (2020) concluded that this solar–climatic link could result from a weak ca 22-year solar forcing on bi-decadal oscillation internal to the North Atlantic Ocean–atmosphere system. Further, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was seen to serve as a possible amplifier of the solar signal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Collectively, the presence of the solar-type (century-long and ca 22-year) variations in climate of Northern Fennoscandia and nearby regions has been so far most firmly established. Methodologically, the solar–climatic linkages have been demonstrated over millennial, century-long and bi-decadal timescales by means of various statistical approaches including: (a) Fourier method (Kasatkina et al, 2007), (b) a combination of both the wavelet and Fourier methods (Ogurtsov et al, 2002, 2005, 2013), (c) analysis of correlations between timescale-dependent (“low-pass filtered”) solar and proxy records (Helama et al, 2010; Ogurtsov et al, 2011, 2013, 2020; Sejrup et al, 2010), (d) analysis of correlations between unsmoothed that is, unfiltered raw data (Ogurtsov et al, 2017), and (e) visual comparison of the solar and climatic records (Haltia-Hovi et al, 2007). Thus, it is unlikely that the revealed indications of solar–climatic relationship could be completely attributed to ambiguity of any particular statistical technique.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Solar-type periodicities in the climate variability of Northern Fennoscandia during the last three centuries: Real influence of solar activity or natural instability in the climate system

Ogurtsov

Helama

Jalkanen³

et al. 2021

The Holocene

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Fifteen proxy records of summer temperature in Fennoscandia, Northern Europe and in Yamal and Taymir Peninsulas (Western Siberia) were analyzed for the AD 1700–2000 period. Century-long (70–100 year) and quasi bi-decadal periodicities were found from proxy records representing different parts of Fennoscandia. Decadal variation was revealed in a smaller number of records. Statistically significant correlations were revealed between the timescale-dependent components of temperature variability and solar cycles of Schwabe (~11 year), Hale (~22 year), and Gleissberg (сentury-long) as recorded in solar activity data. Combining the results from our correlation analysis with the evidence of solar-climatic linkages over the Northern Fennoscandia obtained over the past 20 years suggest that there are two possible explanations for the obtained solar-proxy relations: (a) the Sun’s activity actually influences the climate variability in Northern Fennoscandia and in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere albeit the mechanism of such solar-climatic linkages are yet to be detailed; (b) the revealed solar-type periodicities result from natural instability of climate system and, in such a case, the correlations may appear purely by chance. Multiple lines of evidence support the first assumption but we note that the second one cannot be yet rejected. Guidelines for further research to elucidate this question are proposed including the Fisher’s combined probability test in the presence of solar signal in multiple proxy records.

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“…The question of the reality of a relationship between solar activity and the Earth's climate and its possible physical mechanism is becoming increasingly important in solar−terrestrial research. Evidence of the solar influence on the climate of Northern Fennoscandia (NF) was obtained from a number of studies, based on the data of paleoclimatology [1][2][3][4][5]. On the other hand, some evidence against the Sun-climate link in NF was obtained as well [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal and Bi-Decadal Periodicities in Temperature of Southern Scandinavia: Manifestations of Natural Variability or Climatic Response to Solar Cycles?

Ogurtsov

2021

Atmosphere

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Nine proxies of temperature over the last 225–300 years in Southern Fennoscandia (55–63° N) were analyzed. Seven reconstructions of the mean growing season temperatures were obtained by dendroclimatological methods. Reconstructions of spring temperatures in Stockholm and winter temperatures in Tallinn were based on historical documentary sources. It was found that significant decadal (10–13 years) and bi-decadal (22–25 years) periodicities were present in many of these series during the entire time interval. Four proxy records correlated significantly with the quasi 22-year solar cycle of Hale. Three time series correlated significantly with the quasi 11-year solar cycle of Schwabe. This can be considered as evidence of a link between decadal and bi-decadal changes in solar activity and climate in Southern Fennoscandia. On the other hand, signs of correlation differed, as well as the time shift between the solar and temperature cycles. It is difficult to explain such an intricate relationship and, thus, the physical mechanism of solar−climatic linkages remains unclear. That is why assumptions about the purely occasional appearance of correlations cannot yet be rejected. Guidelines for further research are suggested.

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Assessing the signals of the Hale solar cycle in temperature proxy records from Northern Fennoscandia

Cited by 6 publications

References 57 publications

The possible impact of solar activity on the summer temperature distribution over Eurasia

The possible impact of solar activity on the summer temperature distribution over Eurasia

Solar-type periodicities in the climate variability of Northern Fennoscandia during the last three centuries: Real influence of solar activity or natural instability in the climate system

Decadal and Bi-Decadal Periodicities in Temperature of Southern Scandinavia: Manifestations of Natural Variability or Climatic Response to Solar Cycles?

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