Assessing the suitability of central European landscapes for the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx

Abstract

Summary1. After an absence of almost 100 years, the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx is slowly recovering in Germany along the German-Czech border. Additionally, many reintroduction schemes have been discussed, albeit controversially, for various locations. We present a habitat suitability model for lynx in Germany as a basis for further management and conservation efforts aimed at recolonization and population development. 2. We developed a statistical habitat model using logistic regression to quantify the factors that describe lynx home ranges in a fragmented landscape. As no data were available for lynx distribution in Germany, we used data from the Swiss Jura Mountains for model development and validated the habitat model with telemetry data from the Czech Republic and Slovenia. We derived several variables describing land use and fragmentation, also introducing variables that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a larger scale than the map resolution. 3. We obtained a model with only one significant variable that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a scale of about 80 km 2 . This result is biologically meaningful, reflecting the absence of intensive human land use on the scale of an average female lynx home range. Model testing at a cut-off level of P > 0·5 correctly classified more than 80% of the Czech and Slovenian telemetry location data of resident lynx. Application of the model to Germany showed that the most suitable habitats for lynx were large-forested low mountain ranges and the large forests in east Germany. 4. Our approach illustrates how information on habitat fragmentation on a large scale can be linked with local data to the potential benefit of lynx conservation in central Europe. Spatially explicit models like ours can form the basis for further assessing the population viability of species of conservation concern in suitable patches.

Habitat selection models for European wildcat conservation

“…Habitat models based on presence-absence data are the most standard approach to habitat modelling (e.g. Schadt et al, 2002b;Woolf et al, 2002;Naves et al, 2003;Seoane et al, 2003;Niedzialkowska et al, 2006). These models are often based on coarse-grained landscape and species information allowing coarse habitat inferences and predictions, but they may overlook biological details important for species conservation.…”

Species Distribution Models Do Not Account for Abundance: The Case of Arthropods on Terceira Island

“…By quantifying species-environment relationships and prediction of species' geographic distributions from confirmed occurrences, they assume a direct link between the probability of presence and environmental suitability (Pearce & Ferrier 2001, Peterson 2006. Such models can be used to develop management decisions and conservation strategies (Schadt et al 2002, Barbosa et al 2003, Hirzel et al 2004, Russell et al 2004, among other practical and theoretical applications (see Peterson 2006 for a review). Their usefulness would be greatly strengthened if a relationship between local probability of occurrence and abundance were to exist.…”

Distance weighting avoids erroneous scale effects in species‐habitat models

“…In the empirical model, the strong explanatory power of the land-use type forest well reflects the biology of the Eurasian lynx which prefers forests of very large extends in mountainous areas (Schadt et al 2002;Basille et al 2008Basille et al , 2009. Basille et al (2009) showed that abundances of the lynx are closely related to prey density which was not available as a variable in our data set, but the nonlinear effect of the temperature variable might well indicate an optimum which beneficially affects productivity (Melis et al 2010) and therefore continuous resource availability.…”