Assessing the Uncertainty of Multiple Input Datasets in the Prediction of Water Resource Components

Abstract

A large number of local and global databases for soil, land use, crops, and climate are now available from different sources, which often differ, even when addressing the same spatial and temporal resolutions. As the correct database is unknown, their impact on estimating water resource components (WRC) has mostly been ignored. Here, we study the uncertainty stemming from the use of multiple databases and their impacts on WRC estimates such as blue water and soil water for the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in Iran. Four climate databases and two land use maps were used to build multiple configurations of the KRB model using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), which were similarly calibrated against monthly river discharges. We classified the configurations based on their calibration performances and estimated WRC for each one. The results showed significant differences in WRC estimates, even in models of the same class i.e., with similar performance after calibration. We concluded that a non-negligible level of uncertainty stems from the availability of different sources of input data. As the use of any one database among several produces questionable outputs, it is prudent for modelers to pay more attention to the selection of input data.

A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference

“…12-Kamali et al [34] analyzed characteristics and relationships among meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts using the Drought Hazard Index derived from a SWAT application. They quantified characteristics such as severity, frequency, and duration of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Standardized Soil Water Index (SSWI) for historical and near future (2020-2052) periods.…”

Assessing the Impact of CFSR and Local Climate Datasets on Hydrological Modeling Performance in the Mountainous Black Sea Catchment

“…Therefore, the Hargreaves method [50], which requires only min-max temperatures, was used to estimate the potential evapotranspiration. The Hargreaves equation has already been successfully applied in the region [43], and also in other local and regional studies [51][52][53]. The SWAT simulations were run for the period between 1995 and 2012 (used for both climate databases).…”

Assessing the Water-Resources Potential of Istanbul by Using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Hydrological Model

“…There are different gridded climate datasets covering the region of our study. Using these datasets could be quite useful for evaluating the uncertainty caused by using different input data [48]. Furthermore, scientists may consider the possibility of using a stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model if there are not enough data of precipitations in a specific study area [49,50].…”