Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States

Abstract

Although forecasts and other mathematical models have the potential to play an important role in mitigating the impact of infectious disease outbreaks, the extent to which these tools are used in public health decision making in the United States is unclear. Throughout 2015, we invited public health practitioners belonging to three national public health organizations to complete a cross-sectional survey containing questions on model awareness, model use, and communication with modelers. Of 39 respondents, 46.15% used models in their work, and 20.51% reported direct communication with those who create models. Over half (64.10%) were aware that influenza forecasts exist. The need for improved communication between practitioners and modelers was overwhelmingly endorsed, with over 50% of participants indicating the need for models more relevant to public health questions, increased frequency of telecommunication, and more plain language in discussing models. Model use for public health decision making must be improved if models are to reach their full potential as public health tools. Increased quality and frequency of communication between practitioners and modelers could be particularly useful in achieving this goal. It is important that improvements be made now, rather than waiting for the next public health crisis to occur.

Assessing the use and understanding of the Portuguese heat–health warning system (ÍCARO)

“…Our findings are strikingly similar to those of Doms et al, 9 within a different area of work (HHWS/HHAPs versus influenza forecasts) and using different methods (qualitative versus quantitative). More broadly, such observation suggests this issue might be observed in other areas in public health and pinpoints the importance of researchers in public health to work in close contact with practitioners, using less statistical or methodological terms.…”

“…7,8 However, good communication is also required between professionals working in public health, and the issue of communication within public health has received less attention. Doms et al 9 employed an online survey to assess awareness and use of influenza forecasts in decision making among US public health professionals. These authors reported that less than half of the respondents reported to use such models; over half referred the need for improved communication between practitioners and modellers and the use of less technical language while discussing models.…”

Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples

“…However, the use of infectious disease forecasts for decision making is challenging because most existing infectious diseases forecasts are not standardized, not validated, and can be difficult to communicate to non-scientific audiences. Forecasts may fail to address outcomes that are relevant for public health responders [10]. To address these limitations, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Influenza Division (CDC/ID) and Division of Vector-Borne Diseases launched the Epidemic Prediction Initiative (EPI) in December 2014 [11, 12].…”

Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis

“…Similarly, epidemic forecasting algorithms that leverage routine surveillance data can also be used to rapidly predict pandemic characteristics relevant to policy makers. Every year during the influenza season, modelers in many parts of the world, sometimes in collaboration with public health practitioners, make weekly forecasts of epidemic characteristics, such as peak size and timing [35][36][37]. Since 2013, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have even coordinated seasonal challenges to external researchers to predict onset week and peak week for the US influenza season [38].…”