Assessing the value of deep neural networks for postoperative complication prediction in pancreaticoduodenectomy patients

Abstract

Introduction Pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is associated with a high risk of postoperative complications (PoCs) and risk prediction of these is therefore critical for optimal treatment planning. We hypothesize that novel deep learning network approaches through transfer learning may be superior to legacy approaches for PoC risk prediction in the PDAC surgical setting. Methods Data from the US National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) 2002–2018 were used, with a total of 5,881,881 million patients, including 31,728 PD patients. Modelling approaches comprised of a model trained on a general surgery patient cohort and then tested on a PD specific cohort (general model), a transfer learning model trained on the general surgery patients with subsequent transfer and retraining on a PD-specific patient cohort (transfer learning model), a model trained and tested exclusively on the PD-specific patient cohort (direct model), and a benchmark random forest model trained on the PD patient cohort (RF model). The models were subsequently compared against the American College of Surgeons (ACS) surgical risk calculator (SRC) in terms of predicting mortality and morbidity risk. Results Both the general model and transfer learning model outperformed the RF model in 14 and 16 out of 19 prediction tasks, respectively. Additionally, both models outperformed the direct model on 17 out of the 19 tasks. The transfer learning model also outperformed the general model on 11 out of the 19 prediction tasks. The transfer learning model outperformed the ACS-SRC regarding mortality and all the models outperformed the ACS-SRC regarding the morbidity prediction with the general model achieving the highest Receiver Operator Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.668 compared to the 0.524 of the ACS SRC. Conclusion DNNs deployed using a transfer learning approach may be of value for PoC risk prediction in the PD setting.