Assessing the vulnerability of water resources in the context of climate changes in a small forested watershed using SWAT: A review

Marin, Mirabela; Clinciu, I.; Tudose, N; Ungurean, Cezar; Adorjani, A.; Mihalache, Alin Lucian; Davidescu, A. A.; Davidescu, Ş.; Dincă, Lucian; Cacovean, Horea

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2020.109330

Cited by 84 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Global warming as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases might reduce water security in near future (Arnell and Reynard, 1996; Zhang et al ., 2010; Cuo et al ., 2015; Marin et al ., 2020), due to expected decreases in precipitation, surface runoff, and actual evapotranspiration (Zhang et al ., 2010; Haddeland et al ., 2012; Cuo et al ., 2015; Pervez and Henebry, 2015). According to Estrela et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) developed four climate change scenarios, representing four radiative forcing target levels until 2,100 (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) (Meinshausen et al ., 2011; Taylor et al ., 2012). These scenarios have previously been applied in several studies involving emissions mitigation and analysis of climate change impacts (Van Vuuren et al ., 2011; Chou et al ., 2014a; Oliveira et al ., 2017; Senent‐Aparicio et al ., 2017; Shiferaw et al ., 2018; Santos et al ., 2019; Sousa et al ., 2019; Marin et al ., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global warming as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases might reduce water security in near future (Arnell and Reynard, 1996;Zhang et al, 2010;Cuo et al, 2015;Marin et al, 2020), due to expected decreases in precipitation, surface runoff, and actual evapotranspiration (Zhang et al, 2010;Haddeland et al, 2012;Cuo et al, 2015;Pervez and Henebry, 2015). According to Estrela et al (2012), many regional climate models predict future temperature rise and precipitation reduction (although there are climate models forecasting precipitation increase), causing changes in the hydrologic regime of watersheds (Arnell, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Climate change impact assessment on water resources under RCP scenarios: A case study in Mundaú River Basin, Northeastern Brazil

Andrade

Montenegro

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global climate predictions and possible environmental impacts have an increasing source of concern in recent years. Analyses of the impacts of climate change scenarios on regional hydrology are required to design effective adaptation strategies for specific river basins. This study focuses on assessment of future climate change impacts on water resources of the Mundaú River Basin (MRB), in Brazil, using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Eta-MIROC5 and Eta-HadGEM2, for three time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In general, climate models predict that the MRB will experience significant annual precipitation decreases, between 0.4% (1,087.45 mm) and 25.3% (815.59 mm), in both scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) respectively, when compared to the observed period (2003-2016). Maximum and minimum temperature increases up to 2.3 C and 0.65 C under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and up to 4.3 C and 2.2 C under the RCP 8.5 scenario. SWAT simulations predict substantial surface runoff decreases with a minimum average annual value of 21.3 mm for the RCP 8.5 in medium-term. Additionally, actual evapotranspiration (ET) is predicted to decrease from 780.77 to a minimum of 648.1 mm, although increases in potential evapotranspiration (ET 0) are expected. In general, annual streamflow also is expected to decrease, more severely under RCP 8.5 conditions, reaching a drop of approximately 66.7% (15.2 m 3 Ás −1), compared to the observed period (45.5 m 3 Ás −1). Seasonal streamflow is predicted to decrease for both models, in both rainy and dry seasons, except for medium-term of the Eta-HadGEM2. Although there are still some uncertainties associated with climate models, the findings from this study can assist water resource managers in management decisions for appropriate water use, development of public policies that favour sustainability, and adoption of mitigation and prevention practices to ensure water security in the basin.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate change impact assessment on water resources under RCP scenarios: A case study in Mundaú River Basin, Northeastern Brazil

Andrade

Montenegro

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Table 4 shows the parameter ranges and the final calibrated values for each of the reanalysis products. Among the calibrated parameters-and as demonstrated by the sensitivity analysis, CN2 was one of the most sensitive parameters as it is directly related to runoff generation [67,68]. We thus expected that the calibrated CN2 values would be substantially reduced to correct the overestimation of precipitation as detected using the reanalysis data, with the expected reduction being between 11.7% and 19.9%.…”

Section: Model Calibration Using Glofas Discharge Datamentioning

confidence: 90%

Evaluating the Potential of GloFAS-ERA5 River Discharge Reanalysis Data for Calibrating the SWAT Model in the Grande San Miguel River Basin (El Salvador)

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Hydrological modelling requires accurate climate data with high spatial-temporal resolution, which is often unavailable in certain parts of the world—such as Central America. Numerous studies have previously demonstrated that in hydrological modelling, global weather reanalysis data provides a viable alternative to observed data. However, calibrating and validating models requires the use of observed discharge data, which is also frequently unavailable. Recent, global-scale applications have been developed based on weather data from reanalysis; these applications allow streamflows with satisfactory resolution to be obtained. An example is the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), which uses the fifth generation of reanalysis data produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) as input. It provides discharge data from 1979 to the present with a resolution of 0.1°. This study assesses the potential of GloFAS for calibrating hydrological models in ungauged basins. For this purpose, the quality of data from ERA5 and from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation and Temperature with Station as well as the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was analysed. The focus was on flow simulation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The models were calibrated using GloFAS discharge data. Our results indicate that all the reanalysis datasets displayed an acceptable fit with the observed precipitation and temperature data. The correlation coefficient (CC) between the reanalysis data and the observed data indicates a strong relationship at the monthly level all of the analysed stations (CC > 0.80). The Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) also showed the acceptable performance of the calibrated SWAT models (KGE > 0.74). We concluded that GloFAS data has substantial potential for calibrating hydrological models that estimate the monthly streamflow in ungauged watersheds. This approach can aid water resource management.

show abstract

“…The SWAT model with a strong physical foundation is mainly used to simulate soil erosion [26,27], non-point source pollution [28,29], agricultural management measures [30,31], etc. Suitable for watersheds with different land use types [32], soil types [33] and topographic conditions [34], it can simulate areas with insufficient data, thus meeting the data richness requirements of traditional hydrological models and satisfying the requirements of simulation accuracy [35,36]. Many investigations are available which have analyzed the effects of land use change on runoff and sediment process simulation by the SWAT model [37][38][39][40][41].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Variation of Water and Sediment to Landscape Pattern in the Dapoling Watershed

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The relationship between water-sediment processes and landscape pattern changes has currently become a research hotspot in low-carbon water and land resource optimization research. The SWAT-VRR model is a distributed hydrological model which better shows the effect of land use landscape change on hydrological processes in the watershed. In this paper, the hydrological models of the Dapoling watershed were built, the runoff and sediment yield from 2006 to 2011 were simulated, and the relationship between landscape patterns and water-sediment yield was analyzed. The results show that the SWAT-VRR model is more accurate and reasonable in describing runoff and sediment yield than the SWAT model. The sub-basins whose soil erosion is relatively light are mostly concentrated in the middle reaches with a slope mainly between 0–5°. The NP, PD, ED, SPIIT, SHEI, and SHDI of the watershed increased slightly, and the COHESION, AI, CONTAG, and LPI showed a certain decrease. The landscape pattern is further fragmented, with the degree of landscape heterogeneity increasing and the connection reducing. The runoff, sediment yield and surface runoff are all extremely significantly negatively correlated with forest, which implies that for more complicated patch shapes of forest which have longer boundaries connecting with the patches of other landscape types, the water and sediment processes are regulated more effectively. Therefore, it can be more productive to carry out research on the optimization of water and soil resources under the constraint of carbon emission based on the SWAT-VRR model.

show abstract

Assessing the vulnerability of water resources in the context of climate changes in a small forested watershed using SWAT: A review

Cited by 84 publications

References 54 publications

Climate change impact assessment on water resources under RCP scenarios: A case study in Mundaú River Basin, Northeastern Brazil

Climate change impact assessment on water resources under RCP scenarios: A case study in Mundaú River Basin, Northeastern Brazil

Evaluating the Potential of GloFAS-ERA5 River Discharge Reanalysis Data for Calibrating the SWAT Model in the Grande San Miguel River Basin (El Salvador)

Response of Variation of Water and Sediment to Landscape Pattern in the Dapoling Watershed

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About