Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark; Brogaard, Sara; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

doi:10.5194/esd-7-893-2016

Cited by 40 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Finally, changes in total cropland are assumed to be proportional to changes in cereal land, using the actual proportions of cereal land to total cropland in 2000 (Engström et al, 2016b). In previous applications of PLUM (Engström et al, 2016a) the static feed ratio (assumption as to how much of the consumed meat is produced from cereal feeds vs. grazing) was identified as a cause for underestimation of cropland demand for scenarios with meat-rich diets.…”

Section: Land Use Model and Coupling To The Climate-economy Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The simulations capture the impact of climate change on yield developments on a 0.5 • × 0.5 • global grid through changes in precipitation, temperature patterns and CO 2 concentration (derived from the RCPs; see Engström et al, 2016a), through direct biophysical effect and also by adaptation of sowing time to changes in climate. No other changes (e.g.…”

Section: Ecosystem Model Downscaling Cropland and The Terrestrial Camentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The coefficients characterising these relationships are used as scenario parameters. Values for scenario parameters are based on the SSP characteristics as previously described in Engström et al (2016a). Population, economic development and the share of urban population on total population are input to PLUM and are used as provided by the SSP Database (SSP Database, 2015).…”

Section: Land Use Model and Coupling To The Climate-economy Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The land use model uses yield scenarios, which are the result of calculating the distances of the emission scenarios (indicated by in Fig. 1) to the RCPs and using these as inverse weights to create yield time series (Appendix A5; Engström et al, 2016a) based on simulated cropland productivity from an ecosystem model (for details see Sect. 2.2.3).…”

Section: Reference and Mitigation Scenarios In The Iam Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The managed land version of the dynamic vegetationecosystem model LPJ-GUESS Lindeskog et al, 2013) was used to simulate cereal yields (wheat, maize, millet and rice) as input to PLUM as in Engström et al (2016a). The simulations capture the impact of climate change on yield developments on a 0.5 • × 0.5 • global grid through changes in precipitation, temperature patterns and CO 2 concentration (derived from the RCPs; see Engström et al, 2016a), through direct biophysical effect and also by adaptation of sowing time to changes in climate.…”

Section: Ecosystem Model Downscaling Cropland and The Terrestrial Camentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 "Taking the green road"). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

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Section: Land Use Model and Coupling To The Climate-economy Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ecosystem Model Downscaling Cropland and The Terrestrial Camentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Land Use Model and Coupling To The Climate-economy Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Reference and Mitigation Scenarios In The Iam Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ecosystem Model Downscaling Cropland and The Terrestrial Camentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

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Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate‐related science

et al. 2023

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Storylines are introduced in climate science to provide unity of discourse, integrate the physical and socioeconomic components of phenomena, and make climate evolution more tangible. The use of this concept by multiple scholar communities and the novelty of some of its applications renders the concept ambiguous nonetheless, because the term hides behind a wide range of purposes, understandings, and methodologies. This semi-systematic literature review identifies three approaches that use storylines as a keystone concept: scenarios-familiar for their use in IPCC reports-discourseanalytical approaches, and physical climate storylines. After screening peer-reviewed articles that mention climate and storylines, 270 articles are selected, with 158, 55, and 57 in each category. The results indicate that each scholarly community works with a finite and different set of methods and diverging understandings. Moreover, these approaches have received criticism in their assembly of storylines: either for lacking explicitness or for the homogeneity of expertise involved. This article proposes that cross-pollination among the approaches can improve the usefulness and usability of climate-related storylines. Among good practices are the involvement of a broader range of scientific disciplines and expertise, use of mixed-methods, assessment of storylines against a wider set of quality criteria, and targeted stakeholder participation in key stages of the process.

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Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania

Enahoro¹,

Kozicka

Pfeifer

et al. 2023

Reg Environ Change

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Standard tools that can quantitatively track the impacts of higher global demand for animal-sourced food to their local environmental effects in developing countries are largely missing. This paper presents a novel integrated assessment framework that links a model of the global agricultural and food system, a landscape-level environmental impact assessment model, and an ecosystem services simulation model. For Tanzania, this integrated assessment showed that a projected increase in the demand and production of foods of livestock origin with optimistic economic growth between 2010 and 2030 leads to an improvement in food security. However, resulting transitions in land use impact negatively on the future provisioning of ecosystem services, increasing phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment in runoff and reducing water quality in areas downstream of the agricultural expansion. Losses in ecosystem services are lowest when diversified farming practices are adopted in areas of agricultural land expansion. The role of land management in the environmental impacts of expanded livestock production is highlighted, as is the need for a new generation of analytical tools to inform policy recommendations.

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Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Cited by 40 publications

References 43 publications

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate‐related science

Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania

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