Assessment and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Consumption in Russia

Leonidova, Ekaterina; Sidorov, Maksim

doi:10.1134/s1075700723010124

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

2023

DOI: 10.1134/s1075700723010124

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Assessment and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Consumption in Russia

Ekaterina Leonidova

Maksim Sidorov

Abstract: — The article proposes an approach to determining the volume of domestic tourism in Russia and evaluates its dynamics from 2009 to 2020. Based on the use of intersectoral modeling, the economic effects of a twofold increase in the number of trips across the country planned by 2035 are determined. To achieve this indicator, a number of measures are required to increase tourist consumption within the country. In conclusion, directions are formulated that contribute to the activation of demand for dome… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications

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An analysis of the geopolitical and economics influence on tourist arrivals in Russia using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

Georgescu,

Oprea,

Bâra

2024

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PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the conflict in Ukraine led to a sustained downturn in tourist arrivals (TA) in Russia. This paper aims to explore the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) and other indices on TA over 1995–2023.Design/methodology/approachWe employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyze the effects, capturing both the positive and negative shocks of these variables on TA.FindingsOur research demonstrates that the NARDL model is more effective in elucidating the complex dynamics between macroeconomic factors and TA. Both an increase and a decrease in GPR lead to an increase in TA. A 1% negative shock in GPR leads to an increase in TA by 1.68%, whereas a 1% positive shock in GPR also leads to an increase in TA by 0.5%. In other words, despite the increase in GPR, the number of tourists coming to Russia increases by 0.5% for every 1% increase in that risk. Several explanations could account for this phenomenon: (1) risk-tolerant tourists: some tourists might be less sensitive to GPR or they might find the associated risks acceptable; (2) economic incentives: increased risk might lead to a depreciation in the local currency and lower costs, making travel to Russia more affordable for international tourists; (3) niche tourism: some tourists might be attracted to destinations experiencing turmoil, either for the thrill or to gain firsthand experience of the situation; (4) lagged effects: there might be a time lag between the increase in risk and the actual impact on tourist behavior, meaning the effects might be observed differently over a longer period.Originality/valueOur study, employing the NARDL model and utilizing a dataset spanning from 1995 to 2023, investigates the impact of GPR, gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on TA in Russia. This research is unique because the dataset was compiled by the authors. The results show a complex relationship between GPR and TA, indicating that factors influencing TA can be multifaceted and not always intuitive.

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An analysis of the geopolitical and economics influence on tourist arrivals in Russia using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

Georgescu,

Oprea,

Bâra

2024

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Assessment and comparison of tourist potential and public ratings of regions for the regional tourist market development (by the example of Orel region)

Shmarkov,

Shmarkova

2024

RusJEL

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Objective: to develop and test the method of estimating a tourism potential of regions, the method of comparing them with public ratings of regions; to diagnose problem areas of management when forming the regional market of tourist services and justify recommendations for its development. Methods: general scientific and general logical methods, analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization; statistical and correlation analysis. Results: the paper presents the author’s method of constructing summary estimates of the regions’ tourism potential, integrating official statistical indicators. Due to the introduction of dimensionless relative values, the difficulties of accounting for different-sized indicators were resolved. The obtained estimates were used to form an objective idea of the strength of the regions’ tourism potential, to compare them, to assess the opportunities and determine the prospects for tourism development in the region. Since one of the obstacles in solving this task is low public ratings, it is important to be able to compare them with objective assessments. For this purpose, we have developed and tested a method of comparing the summary estimates of the regions’ tourism potential with their ratings, in particular, with the values of the National Tourism Rating – 2022. As a result, by the example of Orel region, the disproportions were revealed that indicate the inefficient use of the region’s tourism potential. Based on the analysis of the regional strategies implementation, programs and practices of tourism organization and problem areas of management, recommendations are formulated, the implementation of which guarantees the economic development of the region and tourism sphere. Scientific novelty: the method of constructing summary estimates of the regions’ tourism potential is developed; the method of comparing the summary estimates of tourism potential with public ratings of regions is proposed and tested. The disproportions in assessments and ratings are substantiated quantitatively. The problem areas of management in the formation of the regional tourist services market are diagnosed; recommendations for its development are given. Practical significance: the study results can be used by business entities and authorities to formulate strategies and programs of regional development; the presented method of comparing the tourism potential and ratings of regions can be used in scientific, pedagogical and research activities.

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Bibliographic Database As a Tool for the Scientific Approach to the Solution of a Task of Socio-Economic Development: the Example of River Tourism

Ermolaev,

Yashalova,

Scherbina

et al. 2024

Sci. Tech. Inf. Proc.

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Assessment and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Consumption in Russia

Cited by 3 publications

References 21 publications

An analysis of the geopolitical and economics influence on tourist arrivals in Russia using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

An analysis of the geopolitical and economics influence on tourist arrivals in Russia using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

Assessment and comparison of tourist potential and public ratings of regions for the regional tourist market development (by the example of Orel region)

Bibliographic Database As a Tool for the Scientific Approach to the Solution of a Task of Socio-Economic Development: the Example of River Tourism

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