Assessment and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk from Land Use Change in Xinjiang, China

Cheng, Yue; Song, Wei; Yu, Hao; Wei, Xi; Sheng, Shuangqing; Liu, Bo; Li, Junfang; Cao, Congjie; Yang, Dazhi

doi:10.3390/land12040895

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In previous PLUS model simulations, the model achieved high simulation accuracy in large areas or arid regions such as the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological barrier, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Yellow River Basin, and Xinjiang, China, using recent land use data [54][55][56][57], which is consistent with the results obtained in the present work. In this work, only the simulation of the whole basin in the natural scenario was conducted.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

et al. 2023

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Exploring the future trends of land use/land cover (LULC) changes is significant for the sustainable development of a region. The simulation and prediction of LULC in a large-scale basin in an arid zone can help the future land management planning and rational allocation of resources in this ecologically fragile region. Using the whole Ili-Balkhash Basin as the study area, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and a combination of PLUS and Markov predictions (PLUS–Markov) were used to simulate and predict land use in 2020 based on the assessment of the accuracy of LULC classification in the global dataset. The accuracy of simulations and predictions using the model were measured for LULC data covering different time periods. Model settings with better simulation results were selected for simulating and predicting possible future land use conditions in the basin. The future predictions for 2025 and 2030, which are based on historical land change characteristics, indicate that the overall future spatial pattern of LULC in the basin remains relatively stable in general without the influence of other external factors. Over the time scale of the future five years, the expansion of croplands and barren areas in the basin primarily stems from the loss of grasslands. Approximately 48% of the converted grassland areas are transformed into croplands, while around 40% are converted into barren areas. In the longer time scale of the future decade, the conversion of grasslands to croplands in the basin is also evident. However, the expansion phenomenon of urban and built-up lands at the expense of croplands is more significant, with approximately 774.2 km2 of croplands developing into urban and built-up lands. This work provides an effective new approach for simulating and predicting LULC in data-deficient basins at a large scale in arid regions, thereby establishing a foundation for future research on the impact of human activities on basin hydrology and related studies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

et al. 2023

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“…On the other hand, urbanization has accelerated the degradation of ecological quality. The expanding urban area in Xinjiang has increased from 4400 km 2 in 2000 to 9600 km 2 in 2020, shifting a large number of forest and grassland use types to arable land and construction land, resulting in ecological degradation [49].…”

Section: Oasis Ecosystem Quality Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the Spatial and Temporal Trends of Ecological Environment Quality and Influencing Factors in Xinjiang Oasis

Zhang,

Deng

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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Human activities and climate change have profound impacts on the ecological environment of oases in Xinjiang, and it is of great significance to explore the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of ecological environment quality in this region for the sustainable development of Xinjiang. The remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) was extracted from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform from 2000 to 2020, and the coefficient of variation and Hurst index were used to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics and stability of the ecological environment quality of the artificial oasis and natural oasis in Xinjiang. The key factors affecting the ecological environment quality are explored through correlation analysis and geoprobes. The results show that the distribution of the ecological environment in Xinjiang oases is high in the north and low in the south, and the overall quality shows a fluctuating downward trend from 0.210 to 0.189. Artificial oases have higher RSEI values, stability, and sustainability than natural oases. The RSEI in the study area was mainly influenced by humidity, followed by greenness and heat, and dryness had the least influence on the RSEI model. Based on the geodetector, the top three highest contributors were found to be precipitation (PRE) (0.83) > relative humidity (RHU) (0.82) > evapotranspiration (ET) (0.57). Climate is the main factor affecting the ecological quality of oases, and the RSEI can be improved by increasing the proportion of artificial oases. The study aims to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of oases in arid zones.

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“…The landscape in these areas experiences both ecological improvement and deterioration. However, the deterioration trend outweighs the improvement trend, leading to an intensification of landscape ecological deterioration [21,22]. During the development of coastal areas, uncontrolled urban expansion in the early stages of economic development can lead to landscape fragmentation, which increases overall ecological risk and tends to concentrate spatially.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

Cheng,

Zhang,

Song

2024

Land

Self Cite

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In recent years, global climate change and human alterations to land use have led to a decrease in ecosystem services, making ecosystems more vulnerable. However, unlike the well-established risk assessment frameworks used in natural disaster research, the concept of ecological risks arising from changes in land use is still in its early stages, with its nuances and assessment methodologies yet to be clearly defined. This study proposes a new framework for assessing ecological risks resulting from changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin. The framework employs a coupled PLUS and Invest model to evaluate the ecological risks of land use change under three development scenarios projected for the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang by 2035. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the predominant land use types in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang were primarily unused land, followed by grassland and cropland. Conversely, grassland, water, and construction land were relatively less prevalent. During this period, the area of unused land and cultivated land increased, while grassland, forest land, and water exhibited a declining trend. Moving forward, under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2035, land use changes in the study area are characterized by the expansion of cropland and unused land, coupled with a significant decrease in grassland area, while other land categories demonstrate minor fluctuations. (2) From 2020 to 2035, across various scenarios, the total ecosystem service within the study area demonstrates an overall increasing trend in both the northern and southern marginal zones. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, the total amount of ecosystem services in the study area decreased by 15.247% compared to 2020. Similarly, under the economic development scenario, this decrease amounted to 13.358% compared to 2020. Conversely, under the ecological protection scenario, the decrease reached 19.852% compared to 2020. (3) The structure of ecological risk levels from 2020 to 2035, across multiple scenarios, demonstrates a consistent pattern, characterized by a predominant proportion of moderate risk. Conversely, other risk levels occupy relatively smaller proportions of the area.

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Assessment and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk from Land Use Change in Xinjiang, China

Cited by 10 publications

References 42 publications

Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

Study on the Spatial and Temporal Trends of Ecological Environment Quality and Influencing Factors in Xinjiang Oasis

Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

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