Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Hu, Jingyi; Wu, Yiping; Zhao, Wenzhi; Wang, Fan; Zhang, Guangchuang; Qiu, Linjing; Hui, Jinyu; Yin, Xiaowei

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101137

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Because the Yellow River is the birthplace of the Chinese nation, its surface water resources in the upper reaches are crucial for the economic development of the basin. Although recent assessments and estimates on the impact of climate change on water resources were carried out in the upper reaches of the Yellow River (Hu et al, 2021; Hu et al, 2022; Zhao et al, 2022), this research was not systematic, and the impact of climate warming and humidification on surface water resources has not been explored. It is therefore unclear how the surface water budget responds to climate warming and humidification of the upper reaches of the Yellow River.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of warming and humidification in the Yellow River's upper reaches and their impact on surface water resources

Yang,

Zhang,

Yue

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Based on multi‐source data, including observation, analysis, model calculation, satellite remote sensing, and scenario estimation data, this study has systematically analysed the warming and dry–wet change characteristics of the Yellow River's upper reaches in the last 60 years. The causes and features of the current warming and humidification and their impact on surface water resources are also discussed. This study found that since 1961, the average temperature in the Yellow River's upper reaches has increased at a rate of 0.37°C/10a, which is more significant than the increases observed for the world, China, and even northwest China in the same period. At the beginning of this century, the rate of change in precipitation in the Yellow River's upper reaches reversed direction from decreasing to increasing, with a significant increase (35 mm/10a) since 2000. Therefore, climate change has shown a significant warming and humidification trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. From the dynamic change perspective, the Yellow River's upper reaches were warming and drying in each climatic period from 1961 to 2010; however, the tendency towards dryness slowed period by period. In contrast, the region showed consistent warming and humidification from 1991 to 2020. From the perspective of multiple time scales, the change in average temperature is mainly dominated by the multi‐decadal scale. In contrast, precipitation is dominated by interannual change. The increase in the multi‐decadal component in average temperature and precipitation explains the current warming and humidification. Precipitation changes in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin are mainly affected by the westerly circulation, the East Asian summer monsoon, and the South Asian summer monsoon circulation systems. However, precipitation was affected by different circulation factors on different time scales. On an interannual scale, it was mainly affected by the South Asian summer monsoon circulation. On an interdecadal scale, it was mainly affected by the westerly wind and the East Asian summer monsoon circulation. On a multi‐decadal scale, it was jointly influenced by the westerly wind, the East Asian summer monsoon, and the South Asian summer monsoon circulation. Under the control of multi‐decadal synergistic enhancement of the westerly, the East Asian summer monsoon, and the South Asian summer monsoon circulations, the vertical field shows an abnormal upward movement. There has been a significant abnormal easterly and southerly airflow that transports water vapour, and cold air is transported along the northwest airflow at the back of the Mongolian cyclone, which makes the climate in the upper reaches of the Yellow River more humid. The warming and humidifying of the upper reaches of the Yellow River has significantly increased runoff and lake area and significantly degraded the frozen soil. The surface water budget in the Yellow River's upper reaches has significantly responded to the current warming and humidification. The actual surface evapotranspiration and surface runoff increased significantly, but the net surface water budget still showed a decreasing trend. The increase in precipitation did not change the surface water deficit.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of warming and humidification in the Yellow River's upper reaches and their impact on surface water resources

Yang,

Zhang,

Yue

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Meteorological driving factors effecting the surface area of Ebinur Lake and determining associated trends and shifts

Yao

Wang²,

Chen³

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Changes in lake water resources and regional hydrological processes in response to climate change and human activity necessitates timely and accurate access to lake change information to monitor water cycles and water security. The Ebinur Lake Basin has experienced a serious ecological crisis in recent years, which is majorly due to excess use of its water. Therefore, in this study, we used Ebinur Lake as a research object, and used Geographic Information System and remote sensing technology, Landsat, Sentinel, and MODIS images, the Google Earth Engine platform, and the water body index method to determine the changes in lake area from April to October of 2011–2020. Daily data from the Alashankou and Jinghe meteorological stations from 2011 to 2020 were collected. The center of gravity-geographically and temporally weighted regression model was used to analyze the factors changes in surface area. The results showed obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneities for the surface area. Except for 2016, which had unusual/extreme weather, in the last decade, the lake surface area generally showed a monthly decreasing trend from April to October. When Ebinur Lake is one water body, the surface area ranges between 530 and 560 km2. We concluded that the spatio-temporal characteristics of Ebinur Lake can be divided into two levels. When the southeast and northwest regions of the lake merge, it represents the largest possible surface area of Ebinur Lake; this was called the “water storage level”. Historically, Ebinur Lake has lost significant amounts of water, and there is no water body connecting the two main parts of the lake (thereby dividing the lake into two areas); this was called “water demand level”. The trajectory of the center of gravity of the lake is linear, with a slope of 45° and a direction of northwest to southeast. The lake gravity center has different aggregation states. According to the season, it can be divided into spring gathering and autumn gathering. The variation in the surface area of Ebinur Lake is highly correlated with the meteorological and hydrological variation during the year. The highest correlation was observed between lake surface area and wind speed. This study aimed to supplement other studies that explore the lake annually and provide a reference for future water resources management and planning.

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Hydrological Drought and Flood Projection in the Upper Heihe River Basin Based on a Multi-GCM Ensemble and the Optimal GCM

Li,

Ye,

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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To ensure water use and water resource security along “the Belt and Road”, the runoff and hydrological droughts and floods under future climate change conditions in the upper Heihe River Basin were projected in this study, based on the observed meteorological and runoff data from 1987 to 2014, and data from 10 GCMs from 1987 to 2014 and from 2026 to 2100, using the SWAT model, the Standardized Runoff Index, run length theory, and the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method. Both the multi-GCM ensemble (MME) and the optimal model were used to assess future hydrological drought and flood responses to climate change. The results showed that (1) the future multi-year average runoff from the MME was projected to be close to the historical period under the SSP245 scenario and to increase by 2.3% under the SSP585 scenario, and those from the optimal model CMCC-ESM2 were projected to decrease under both scenarios; (2) both the MME and the optimal model showed that drought duration and flood intensity in the future were projected to decrease, while drought intensity, drought peak, flood duration, and flood peak were projected to increase under both scenarios in their multi-year average levels; (3) drought duration was projected to decrease most after 2080, and drought intensity, flood duration, and flood peak were projected to increase most after 2080, according to the MME. The MME and the optimal model reached a consensus on the sign of hydrological extreme characteristic responses to climate change, but showed differences in the magnitude of trends.

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Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Cited by 3 publications

References 50 publications

Characteristics of warming and humidification in the Yellow River's upper reaches and their impact on surface water resources

Characteristics of warming and humidification in the Yellow River's upper reaches and their impact on surface water resources

Meteorological driving factors effecting the surface area of Ebinur Lake and determining associated trends and shifts

Hydrological Drought and Flood Projection in the Upper Heihe River Basin Based on a Multi-GCM Ensemble and the Optimal GCM

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