Assessment and referral in suspected COVID-19: a community based observational study

Abstract

Background The COVID-19 pandemic presented new diagnostic and management challenges to primary care alongside rapid changes in service delivery. The purpose of this study was to describe the characteristics of patients with symptoms of COVID-19 in primary care, explore which characteristics were associated with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 and referrals to secondary care, and to describe secondary care referral decisions with reference to national guidance. Methods An observational study using routinely collected data from the Birmingham Out-of-hours Research Database. The study uses consultation data from the Birmingham and Solihull COVID Referral Centre (CRC) between 21st April and 24th July. All CRC consultations were examined to extract patient demographics, free text consultations, prescriptions, observation and onward referrals. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) was calculated and the clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 was established. The population was described and univariate logistic regression was used to identify characteristics associated with clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 and referral decisions. Results 681 patients were seen at the CRC and 56.3% were identified to have a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19. 14.0% of all patients were referred to secondary care, but 59% of patients classified as most severe according to national criteria were not referred. Referral was associated with increasing age, shortness of breath, tachycardia, tachypnoea and hypoxia but patients with a clinical COVID-19 diagnosis were less likely to be referred than those with other diagnoses. Conclusion Just over half of patients seen in the CRC were clinically diagnosed with COVID-19 and most patients were managed in the community. Guidelines developed in the absence of service delivery data for the management of COVID-19 were inconsistent with community urgent care delivery.