Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model

Trinh, T.; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M. L.; Ercan, Ali; Carr, K. J.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.202

Cited by 39 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…MM5 shows a good performance over California when compared to the more recent regional atmospheric model weather research and forecasting model (Ishida, Kavvas, & Jang, ) in the United States. Through a series of nested domains, MM5 is able to downscale coarse global atmospheric datasets down to finer resolutions, on the order of 10 km (Trinh et al, ). This study could be performed by any RCM although MM5 was selected due to its successful application over California as well as the study watershed, SDW (Chen & Dudhia, ; Grubišic, Vellore, & Huggins, ; Ishida et al, ; Jang & Kavvas, ; Kure, Jang, Ohara, Kavvas, & Chen, ; Ohara et al, ; Reeves, Lin, & Rotunno, ; Trinh et al, ).…”

Section: Numerical Coupled Regional Climate‐snow Modelling Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling

Trinh

Kavvas

Ishida

et al. 2017

Hydrological Processes

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Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region.

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Section: Numerical Coupled Regional Climate‐snow Modelling Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling

Trinh

Kavvas

Ishida

et al. 2017

Hydrological Processes

Self Cite

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“…In addition, the mechanisms behind various phenomena and processes need to be fully considered, and the causal relationship of the generation and evolution of different regional geographic objects needs to be well understood. Moreover, geographers must pay attention to the integrated effects (e.g., soilhydrological processes and ecological-economic processes) to explain the regional geographic phenomena and their evolutions (Seneviratne et al, 2010;Green et al, 2011;Cheng et al, 2014;Cheng and Li, 2015;Trinh et al, 2017).…”

Section: The Regional Characteristic Of Geography and Its Research Requirementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As an important tool for solving cross-domain and multiprocess geographic problems, integrated model systems have attracted increasing attention. Thus, geographers and experts have focused on integrated geographic processes, such as the ecological-hydrological process in the Heihe River Basin (Cheng et al, 2014;Cheng and Li, 2015;Guo et al, 2018), the economic-social-environmental process in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (Li et al, 2019), and climate-hydrological processes in the region of the Shasta Dam (Trinh et al, 2017), to conduct various integrated model studies that consider multiple elements and processes in a region. Therefore, a series of integrated model systems have been developed for different geographic process simulations, such as the integrated simulation of global changes and terrestrial ecosystems (Tian et al, 2010), terrestrial water cycle process simulation (Tang et al, 2019), and simulation and evaluation of global carbon emission reduction programs (Wang et al, 2015).…”

Section: Model Resource Analysis Of Geographic Modeling and Simulation Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographic modeling and simulation systems for geographic research in the new era: Some thoughts on their development and construction

Chen

Zhou

et al. 2021

Sci. China Earth Sci.

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Regionality, comprehensiveness, and complexity are regarded as the basic characteristics of geography. The exploration of their core connotations is an essential way to achieve breakthroughs in geography in the new era. This paper focuses on the important method in geographic research: Geographic modeling and simulation. First, we clarify the research requirements of the said three characteristics of geography and its potential to address geo-problems in the new era. Then, the supporting capabilities of the existing geographic modeling and simulation systems for geographic research are summarized from three perspectives: Model resources, modeling processes, and operational architecture. Finally, we discern avenues for future research of geographic modeling and simulation systems for the study of regional, comprehensive and complex characteristics of geography. Based on these analyses, we propose implementation architecture of geographic modeling and simulation systems and discuss the module composition and functional realization, which could provide theoretical and technical support for geographic modeling and simulation systems to better serve the development of geography in the new era.

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“…Globally, climate variability has proven to be one of the major elements with intense teleconnections with droughts [24][25][26]. Advanced understanding of the spatial and temporal conjunctions between the large-scale climate indices and the variations of drought indices can enhance the science of management in water resources systems [27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-Scale Linkages of Socioeconomic Drought with Climate Variability and Its Evolution Characteristics in Northwest China

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2020

Advances in Meteorology

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Socioeconomic drought is one of the most frequent natural disasters in the world and is closely related to human life. The main cause of socioeconomic drought is the contradiction between water supply and demand; hence, as local reservoirs play a major role in improving water supply and coping with extreme climate, it is reasonable to estimate socioeconomic drought based on reservoir operations. The multivariate standardized reliability and resilience index (MSRRI) is utilized to evaluate socioeconomic drought, considering the characteristics of reservoir management and storage water resources. Therefore, with the MSRRI, this study takes the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, which is controlled by two reservoirs dominating the upstream and downstream regions, as a case study to reveal the evolution characteristics of socioeconomic drought in the basin and the external impacts of climate variability. The results showed that (1) the drought intensity in the up-midstream region is stronger than that in the downstream region; in view of the hysteresis in the downstream region, the occurrence of drought in the up-midstream region could be regarded as an early warning to implement preventive measures in the downstream region; (2) an increasing trend in socioeconomic drought throughout the basin exists on both monthly and annual scales, which indicates that the increasing possibility of drought should be effectively addressed; (3) cross wavelet analysis indicated that the large-scale climate indices contribute to the variations in the socioeconomic droughts throughout the basin, indicating that climate variability may provide a reference for managers to deal with socioeconomic drought in the HRB.

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Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model

Cited by 39 publications

References 46 publications

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling

Geographic modeling and simulation systems for geographic research in the new era: Some thoughts on their development and construction

Large-Scale Linkages of Socioeconomic Drought with Climate Variability and Its Evolution Characteristics in Northwest China

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