Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling

Lana, Raquel Martins; Morais, Maíra Moreira; Lima, Tiago França Melo de; Carneiro, Tiago; Stolerman, Lucas M.; Santos, Jefferson Pereira Caldas dos; Carvajal-Cortés, José Joaquim; Eiras, Álvaro Eduardo; Codeço, Cláudia Torres

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0190673

Cited by 21 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…This process showed a strong and significant association between high DENV incidence in mosquitoes and the onset of symptoms in humans at specific spatial and temporal windows [61]. Also the model goodness-of-fit studies based on the number of sticky traps and suggests a minimum of 16 traps for the MI-Aedes at the neighborhood level for mosquito surveillance [62].…”

Section: Modeling the Population Dynamics Of Aedes Aegypti Using Mi-amentioning

confidence: 85%

New Cost-Benefit of Brazilian Technology for Vector Surveillance Using Trapping System

Eiras¹,

Resende²,

Acebal³

et al. 2019

Malaria

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The recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika virus and their subsequent dispersion in the Americas have encouraged the use of novel technologies for adult Aedes surveillance to improve vector control. In Brazil, two platforms for surveillance of eggs and gravid Aedes aegypti have been developed. First, it consists of using data of sampling of eggs in ovitraps associated with GIS technologies to monitor Aedes spp. populations. Although effective, it is not realistic to use in a largescale epidemic scenario as it requires a large amount of human resources for field and laboratory activities. Second, it consists of trapping female Ae. aegypti citywide at fine spatial and temporal scales for vector surveillance (MI-Aedes) to detect high Aedes infestation areas using a GIS environment and the identification of arbovirusinfected trapped mosquitoes by RT-PCR (MI-Virus platforms). Such integration of continuous vector surveillance and targeting vector control in hotspot areas is cost-effective (less than US$ 1.00/person/year), and it has been shown to reduce mosquito population and prevent dengue transmission. The main advantage of the MI-Aedes platform over traditional mosquito surveillance is the integration of continuous vector monitoring coupled with an information technology platform for near real-time data collection, analysis, and decision-making. The technologies also provide data to model the role of climate on the vector population dynamics.

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Section: Modeling the Population Dynamics Of Aedes Aegypti Using Mi-amentioning

confidence: 85%

New Cost-Benefit of Brazilian Technology for Vector Surveillance Using Trapping System

Eiras¹,

Resende²,

Acebal³

et al. 2019

Malaria

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“…. Provided that i is sufficiently large, this would imply x (s ni ) > 0, which contradicts (18) and completes the proof of (17).…”

Section: 3mentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Having shown (17), the rest of the proof follows a standard approach. In our discussion below, we will use increasing sequences {s n } and {t n } frequently that may differ in different contents with {s n } → ∞ and {t n } → ∞ as n → ∞.…”

Section: 3mentioning

confidence: 99%

A stage structured model of delay differential equations for <i>Aedes</i> mosquito population suppression

Huang¹,

Tang²,

Yu³

et al. 2020

Discrete &Amp; Continuous Dynamical Systems - A

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Tremendous efforts have been devoted to the development and analysis of mathematical models to assess the efficacy of the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia in the control of infectious diseases such as dengue and Zika, and their transmission vector Aedes mosquitoes. However, the larval stage has not been included in most models, which causes an inconvenience in testing directly the density restriction on population growth. In this work, we introduce a system of delay differential equations, including both the adult and larval stages of wild mosquitoes, interfered by Wolbachia infected males that can cause complete female sterility. We clarify its global dynamics rather completely by using delicate analyses, including a construction of Liapunovtype functions, and determine the threshold level R 0 of infected male releasing. The wild population is suppressed completely if the releasing level exceeds R 0 uniformly. The dynamical complexity revealed by our analysis, such as bistability and semi-stability, is further exhibited through numerical examples. Our model generates a temporal profile that captures several critical features of Aedes albopictus population in Guangzhou from 2011 to 2016. Our estimate for optimal mosquito control suggests that the most cost-efficient releasing should be started no less than 7 weeks before the peak dengue season.

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“…The carrying capacity depends on external factors such as food availability, climate factors, terrain properties, making a direct estimation almost impossible. In order to estimate the carrying capacity coefficient k , we extend the methodology presented in [ 13 , 41 ]. Let be a part of the domain, where the variables M , A , and E can be considered homogeneous.…”

Section: Methods and Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and simulation of the spatial population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito with an insecticide application

2020

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Background The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the primary vector for several diseases. Its control requires a better understanding of the mosquitoes’ live cycle, including the spatial dynamics. Several models address this issue. However, they rely on many hard to measure parameters. This work presents a model describing the spatial population dynamics of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes using partial differential equations (PDEs) relying on a few parameters. Methods We show how to estimate model parameter values from the experimental data found in the literature using concepts from dynamical systems, genetic algorithm optimization and partial differential equations. We show that our model reproduces some analytical formulas relating the carrying capacity coefficient to experimentally measurable quantities as the maximum number of mobile female mosquitoes, the maximum number of eggs, or the maximum number of larvae. As an application of the presented methodology, we replicate one field experiment numerically and investigate the effect of different frequencies in the insecticide application in the urban environment. Results The numerical results suggest that the insecticide application has a limited impact on the mosquitoes population and that the optimal application frequency is close to one week. Conclusions Models based on partial differential equations provide an efficient tool for simulating mosquitoes’ spatial population dynamics. The reduced model can reproduce such dynamics on a sufficiently large scale.

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Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling

Cited by 21 publications

References 34 publications

New Cost-Benefit of Brazilian Technology for Vector Surveillance Using Trapping System

New Cost-Benefit of Brazilian Technology for Vector Surveillance Using Trapping System

A stage structured model of delay differential equations for <i>Aedes</i> mosquito population suppression

Modeling and simulation of the spatial population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito with an insecticide application

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