BACKGROUND
The predictive value of ascending aortic distensibility (AAD) for mortality and hard cardiovascular disease (CVD) events is not fully established.
OBJECTIVES
We sought to assess the utility of AAD to predict mortality and incident CVD events beyond conventional risk factors in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).
METHODS
AAD was measured with magnetic resonance imaging at baseline in 3,675 MESA participants free of overt CVD. Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to evaluate risk of death, heart failure (HF), and incident CVD in relation to AAD, CVD risk factors, indices of subclinical atherosclerosis, and Framingham risk score.
RESULTS
There were 246 deaths and 171 hard CVD (myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke and cardiovascular [CV] death) and 88 HF events over a median 8.5-year follow-up. Decreased AAD was associated with increased all-cause mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) for the first verus fifth quintile of AAD of 2.7 (p = 0.008) independent of age, sex, ethnicity, other CVD risk factors, and indices of subclinical atherosclerosis. Overall, subjects with lowest AAD had an independent 2-fold risk of hard CVD events. Decreased AAD was associated with CV events in low-to-intermediate CVD risk individuals with an HR for the first quintile of AAD of 5.3 (p = 0.03) as well as with incident HF but not after full adjustment.
CONCLUSIONS
Decreased proximal aorta distensibility significantly predicts all-cause mortality and hard CV events among individuals without overt CVD. AAD may help refine risk stratification, especially among asymptomatic, low-to-intermediate risk individuals.