Assessment of changing meteorology and emissions on air quality using a regional climate model: Impact on ozone

Coleman, L.F.; Martin, Damien; Varghese, Saji; Jennings, S. G.; O’Dowd, Colin

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.11.048

Cited by 23 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…It is recognized that climate change may also have some influence on future PM 2.5 concentrations in the UK; however the focus is here on UK precursor emission sensitivity and many studies have concluded that on the 2030 timescale air pollutant concentrations will be much more strongly influenced by changes in precursor emissions than by changes in climate (e.g. Langner et al, 2012;Coleman et al, 2013;Colette et al, 2013).…”

Section: Vieno Et Al: the Sensitivities Of Emissions Reductions Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

et al. 2016

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Abstract. The reduction of ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a key objective for air pollution control policies in the UK and elsewhere. Long-term exposure to PM 2.5 has been identified as a major contributor to adverse human health effects in epidemiological studies and underpins ambient PM 2.5 legislation. As a range of emission sources and atmospheric chemistry transport processes contribute to PM 2.5 concentrations, atmospheric chemistry transport models are an essential tool to assess emissions control effectiveness. The EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to investigate the impact of reductions in UK anthropogenic emissions of primary PM 2.5 , NH 3 , NO x , SO x or non-methane VOC on surface concentrations of PM 2.5 in the UK for a recent year (2010) and for a future current legislation emission (CLE) scenario (2030). In general, the sensitivity to UK mitigation is rather small. A 30 % reduction in UK emissions of any one of the above components yields (for the 2010 simulation) a maximum reduction in PM 2.5 in any given location of ∼ 0.6 µg m −3 (equivalent to ∼ 6 % of the modelled PM 2.5 ). On average across the UK, the sensitivity of PM 2.5 concentrations to a 30 % reduction in UK emissions of individual contributing components, for both the 2010 and 2030 CLE baselines, increases in the order NMVOC, NO x , SO x , NH 3 and primary PM 2.5 ; however there are strong spatial differences in the PM 2.5 sensitivities across the UK. Consequently, the sensitivity of PM 2.5 to individual component emissions reductions varies between area and population weighting. Reductions in NH 3 have the greatest effect on area-weighted PM 2.5 . A full UK population weighting places greater emphasis on reductions of primary PM 2.5 emissions, which is simulated to be the most effective single-component control on PM 2.5 for the 2030 scenario. An important conclusion is that weighting corresponding to the average exposure indicator metric (using data from the 45 model grids containing a monitor whose measurements are used to calculate the UK AEI) further increases the emphasis on the effectiveness of primary PM 2.5 emissions reductions (and of NO x emissions reductions) relative to the effectiveness of NH 3 emissions reductions. Reductions in primary PM 2.5 have the largest impact on the AEI in both 2010 and the 2030 CLE scenario. The summation of the modelled reductions to the UK PM 2.5 AEI from 30 % reductions in UK emissions of primary PM 2.5 , NH 3 , SO x , NO x and VOC totals 1.17 and 0.82 µg m −3 for the 2010 and 2030 CLE simulations, respectively (not accounting for non-linearity).

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Section: Vieno Et Al: the Sensitivities Of Emissions Reductions Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

et al. 2016

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“…Coleman et al, 2013;Langmann et al, 2012;O'Dowd et al, 2012;Pfeffer et al, 2012 WRF-Chem is used for research applications or for forecasting of air quality (e.g. http://verde.lma.fi.upm.es/ wrfchemeu), volcanic ash dispersion, and weather.…”

Section: A16 Remote/remo-ham Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

et al. 2014

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Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A. Baklanov et al.: Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in EuropeAbstract. Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. Two ways of online coupling can be distinguished: online integrated and online access coupling. Online integrated models simulate meteorology and chemistry over the same grid in one model using one main time step for integration. Online access models use independent meteorology and chemistry modules that might even have different grids, but exchange meteorology and chemistry data on a regular and frequent basis. This article offers a comprehensive review of the current research status of online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry modelling within Europe. Eighteen regional online coupled models developed or being used in Europe are described and compared. Topics discussed include a survey of processes relevant to the interactions between atmospheric physics, dynamics and composition; a brief overview of existing online mesoscale models and European model developments; an analysis on how feedback processes are treated in these models; numerical issues associated with coupled models; and several case studies and model performance evaluation methods. Finally, this article highlights selected scientific issues and emerging challenges that require proper consideration to improve the reliability and usability of these models for the three scientific communities: air quality, numerical meteorology modelling (including weather prediction) and climate modelling. This review will be of particular interest to model developers and users in all three fields as it presents a synthesis of scientific progress and provides recommendations for future research directions and priorities in the development, application and evaluation of online coupled models.

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“…In Paris reductions in the daily and MD8hr ozone concentrations reach ∼ 5 % (Ta- ble 4). To some extent this is explained by the locale climate change; decrease in surface ozone despite the warmer climate has been also observed by other researchers (Coleman et al, 2014;Lauwaet et al, 2014) and linked with enhanced ozone destruction through the O 3 + OH → HO 2 + O 2 reaction due to increase in OH radicals triggered by higher surface water vapour (O( 1 D) + H 2 O → 2OH). For Paris this is consistent with the fact that NO x concentrations are not much affected in the future (| c| = 1.2 µg m −3 ) and therefore the decrease in ozone cannot be attributed to enhanced titration.…”

Section: Future Air Quality At 2050 Due To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 90%

Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions – case studies for Paris and Stockholm

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Ozone, PM 10 and PM 2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modelled at 4 and 1 km horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine-resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional-scale emission projections by comparing modelled pollutant concentrations between the fine-and coarse-scale simulations over the study areas. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g. the city of Stockholm) the bias related to coarse-scale projections may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modelling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily mean and maximum) is up to −5 % for Paris and −2 % for Stockholm city. The climate benefit on PM 2.5 and PM 10 in Paris is between −5 and −10 %, while for Stockholm we estimate mixed trends of up to 3 % depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15 % for daily mean and maximum ozone and 20 % for PM. Through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NO x emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily mean ozone by 2.5 % in Paris. Climate and not emission change appears to be the most influential factor for maximum ozone concentration over the city of Paris, which may be particularly interesting from a health impact perspective.

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Assessment of changing meteorology and emissions on air quality using a regional climate model: Impact on ozone

Cited by 23 publications

References 27 publications

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions – case studies for Paris and Stockholm

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Assessment of changing meteorology and emissions on air quality using a regional climate model: Impact on ozone

Cited by 23 publications

References 27 publications

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions – case studies for Paris and Stockholm

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The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>