Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change
Projections and their Impacts on Flooding

Rukundo, Emmanuel; Doğan, A. Umran

doi:10.15244/pjoes/63781

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Similarly, a study by Poelmans et al (2011) and Akter et al (2018) in Belgium also suggested that climate change was likely to cause a larger change in peak flows compared with the studied scenarios of urban expansion. However, these results contradict the findings of Rukundo & Dogan (2016), who suggested that land-use change impacts predominate the climate change impacts in overall assessment on flood peaks in Kigali, Rwanda. In quantitative terms, looking at Table 6, a 25-year flood runoff, for example, the ratio of climate only to landcover only flood magnitudes is in the range 1.13-1.20 in the past and 1.02-1.21 in the future.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate and Land-cover Changes On Flood Runoff Frequenciescontrasting

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Mzava

Valimba

Nobert

2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Over the past half-century, the risk of urban flooding in Dar es Salaam has increased due to changes in land cover coupled with climatic changes. This paper aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the magnitudes and frequencies of flood runoffs in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A calibrated and validated SWAT rainfall-runoff model was used to generate flood hydrographs for the period 1969–2050 using historical rainfall data and projected rainfall based on the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model. Results showed that climate change has a greater impact on change in peak flows than land-cover change when the two are treated separately in theory. It was observed that, in the past, the probability of occurrence of urban flooding in the study area was likely to be increased up to 1.5-fold by climate change relative to land-cover change. In the future, this figure is estimated to decrease to 1.1-fold. The coupled effects of climate and land-cover changes cause a much bigger impact on change in peak flows than any separate scenario; this scenario represents the actual scenario on the ground. From the combined effects of climate and land-cover changes, the magnitudes of mean peak flows were determined to increase between 34.4 and 58.6% in the future relative to the past. However, the change in peak flows from combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will decrease by 36.3% in the future relative to the past; owing to the lesser variations in climate and land-cover changes in the future compared with those of the past.

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Section: Impacts Of Climate and Land-cover Changes On Flood Runoff Frequenciescontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…Akter et al (2018) projected a higher contribution of climate change to peak flow in the future compared with urbanization. Contrary to most studies, Rukundo & Dogan (2016) suggested that land-use change impacts predominate the climate change impacts in overall assessment on flood peaks in Kigali, Rwanda.…”

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 73%

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Mzava

Valimba

Nobert

2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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“…The functions are established for a past reference period for which large-scale reanalyses and local observations are available and then applied to climate projections. The SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model) ( 141) is widely applied to disaggregate rainfall at the scale of an urban catchment (142,143). The quantile-based corrections can also be applied both on precipitation and temperature.…”

Section: Statistical Downscaling For Studying Future Climate Of Citiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Climates and Climate Change

Masson

Lemonsu

Hidalgo

et al. 2020

Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour.

196

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Cities are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather episodes, which are expected to increase with climate change. Cities also influence their own local climate, for example, through the relative warming known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This review discusses urban climate features (even in complex terrain) and processes. We then present state-of-the-art methodologies on the generalization of a common urban neighborhood classification for UHI studies, as well as recent developments in observation systems and crowdsourcing approaches. We discuss new modeling paradigms pertinent to climate impact studies, with a focus on building energetics and urban vegetation. In combination with regional climate modeling, new methods benefit the variety of climate scenarios and models to provide pertinent information at urban scale. Finally, this article presents how recent research in urban climatology contributes to the global agenda on cities and climate change. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 45 is October 19, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

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“…The use of projections of the future state of decision support systems can successfully integrate drivers of climate and land use changes and enable their impact assessment [36]. One of the most common relations between land development and climate issues in the urban heat island (UHI) effect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

Kazak

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:The increasing level of antropopression has a negative impact on environmental resources and has reached the level of our planetary boundaries. One limitation is land use change caused by urbanization. Global policies prove the need to undertake action in order to develop more sustainable human settlements, which would be adapted better to potential future climate change effects. Among such changes are the increase of average temperatures and extreme events like heat waves. Those changes are more severe in urban areas due to land use development, and result in the urban heat island effect (UHI), which has a negative impact on the thermal comfort of citizens. The paper presents a decision support system that can be used for the assessment of areas to the potential exposure to the UHI effect. The system integrates scenario analysis, land use modelling in cellular automata (Metronamica), and an indicator-based assessment in a geographic information system (ArcGIS). The applicability of the model is illustrated through developing scenarios for the future land use allocation of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland). The results of the calculations show which scenario is the least vulnerable to UHI effects. Moreover, for each scenario, cores of urban areas were identified, in which certain urban design patterns accounting for adaptation to climate change could be implemented. The study provides a guideline for local authorities on where to focus actions in order to create more sustainable urban structures and to better adapt to climate change and environmental extremes.

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Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Projections and their Impacts on Flooding

Cited by 18 publications

References 11 publications

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Urban Climates and Climate Change

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

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