Assessment of climate change and vulnerability of coastal zone of Ghana using trends in temperature and rainfall

Ayensu, A.

doi:10.4314/jast.v9i1.17438

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…The Sen Slope estimator quantified the rate of change in magnitude of rainfall intensity at 24 hour duration for IMD as 0.0889 mm/hr per year and for MCIMD as 0.0885 mm/hr per year which translate to an average of 2.1288 mm/year or 21.288mm/decade. This result is in agreement with the publications of earlier authors such as [40] who got 13mm/decade for Ghana and [9] who had 55.2 mm/decade for gauge station in the Niger Delta. Both work were coastal stations located along the Gulf of Guinea.…”

Section: Comparison Of Rate Of Change In Magnitude and Trend Of Evalu...supporting

confidence: 93%

Climate Change and Trend Analysis of 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series Using Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope Methods for Rainfall IDF Modeling

Sam

Nwaogazie

Ikebude

2022

IJECC

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The aim of this study is the establishment of the existence of trend and variability on a typical 24-hourly sorted thirty years (1986-2015) annual maximum series (AMS) and maximum monthly series (MMS) rainfall data for Uyo metropolis in Nigeria. Data were downscaled into shorter durations of 0.25, 0.5, …,12 hours. The statistical tool applied for the study was the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen Slope estimator. The results showed that there exists increasing trend for all durations analyzed with consistency in the test statistic results. The MK statistic lZl for the AMS varied between 3.1701 and 3.2827 while that of MMS was 4.756, were greater than critical Z = 1.96. Also, the computed p-value for the AMS varied between 0.0012 and 0.0015, and were lower than the significant level of alpha, = 0.05. Thus, the null hypothesis of no trend was rejected. Similarly, the Sen Slope estimator gave an average rate of change in rainfall as 2.1288 and 2.16 mm/year for AMS and MMS time series data, respectively. The result from the Sen Slope estimator indicated that the magnitude of the trend decreased as the duration of rainfall increased such that shorter duration exhibited more trend than higher duration. The results of the MK trend and Sen Slope analysis proved that both test exhibited high degree of consistency with statistically significant positive trend and variability. These results have provided further evidence of an accelerated alarming rate in climate change increasing trend in Uyo metropolis and perhaps the environs. Therefore, planning for effective and accurate rainfall prediction for annual maximum time series data with established variability in trend will require adoption of non-stationary concept to account for the influence of changing climatic parameters in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) modeling.

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Section: Comparison Of Rate Of Change In Magnitude and Trend Of Evalu...supporting

confidence: 93%

Climate Change and Trend Analysis of 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series Using Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope Methods for Rainfall IDF Modeling

Sam

Nwaogazie

Ikebude

2022

IJECC

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“…From Table 2, it can be observed that variation in the rate of change in magnitude of rainfall intensity at 24-hour duration of 0.089 mm/hr per year for both IMD and the MCIMD downscaled data translates to an average of 2.1288 mm/year or 21.288 mm/decade. This result is in tandem with the publications of some researchers such as [8] who got 13 mm/decade for Ghana and [28] who had 55.2 mm/decade for selected stations in the Niger Delta. Both works were carried out along the coastal lines of the Gulf of Guinea.…”

Section: Comparison Of Trend Statistic and Rate Of Change In Magnitudesupporting

confidence: 86%

Non-Stationary Trend Change Point Pattern Using 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series (AMS) Precipitation Data

Sam¹,

Nwaogazie²,

Ikebude³

2022

JWARP

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This paper mainly investigated the basic information about non-stationary trend change point patterns. After performing the investigation, the corresponding results show the existence of a trend, its magnitude, and change points in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) extracted from monthly maximum series (MMS) data for thirty years rainfall data for Uyo metropolis. Trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator (SSE) used to obtain the trend magnitude, while the trend change point analysis was conducted using the distribution-free cumulative sum test (CUSUM) and the sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQMK). A free CUSUM plot date of change point of rainfall trend as 2002 at 90% confidence interval was obtained from where the increasing trend started and became more pronounced in the year 2011, another change point year from the SQMK plot with the trend intensifying. The SSE gave an average rate of change in rainfall as 2.1288 and 2.16 mm/year for AMS and MMS time series data respectively. Invariably, the condition for Non-stationary concept application is met for intensity-duration-frequency modeling.

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“…These results are in accord with the publications of earlier authors such as Ayensu [16], who got 13 mm/decade for coastal stations in Ghana, and Nwaogazie and Ologhadien [21], who had 55.2 mm/decade for coastal gauging stations in the Niger Delta and most recently [24] [39] [40] [41] in Nigeria. However, the results did not agree with the opinion of Okafor et al [47], whose work was on the Nigerian hinterland.…”

Section: Variations In Magnitude and Trend Of Evaluated Test Statisticsupporting

confidence: 91%

Comparative Analysis of Climatic Change Trend and Change-Point Analysis for Long-Term Daily Rainfall Annual Maximum Time Series Data in Four Gauging Stations in Niger Delta

Sam,

Nwaogazie,

Ikebude

et al. 2023

OJMH

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The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen's Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen's Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall changepoint dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.

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Assessment of climate change and vulnerability of coastal zone of Ghana using trends in temperature and rainfall

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Climate Change and Trend Analysis of 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series Using Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope Methods for Rainfall IDF Modeling

Climate Change and Trend Analysis of 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series Using Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope Methods for Rainfall IDF Modeling

Non-Stationary Trend Change Point Pattern Using 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series (AMS) Precipitation Data

Comparative Analysis of Climatic Change Trend and Change-Point Analysis for Long-Term Daily Rainfall Annual Maximum Time Series Data in Four Gauging Stations in Niger Delta

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