Assessment of climate change impact on floodplain and hydrologic ecotones

Moradkhani, Hamid; Baird, Ruben G.; Wherry, Susan A.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.038

Cited by 58 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The impacts of land cover/land use changes on hydrology have been assessed over the past several decades, using (i) field-based data-driven statistical methods, based on single catchments or paired catchments [6,7] and (ii) hydrological modelling [8][9][10][11][12][13]. Hydrological modelling using physically based tools are reported to provide reasonable representation of observed hydrological processes for large areas, and also enable rapid evaluation of catchment development scenarios [14], using relatively less time and resources than field studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Impacts of Land Use Changes on the Hydrology of a Lowland Rainforest Catchment in Ghana, West Africa

Aduah

Jewitt

Toucher

2017

Water

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Impact assessments of actual and potential land use (LU) changes on hydrology are vital in land use planning, which is a prerequisite for effective water resources management. In this study, impacts of actual, as well as potential, LU changes on the hydrology of the Bonsa catchment (1482 km 2 ), Ghana, West Africa, were assessed using the Agricultural Catchments Research Unit (ACRU) hydrological model. Baseline, current and potential future LU maps for three scenarios, namely, business-as-usual (BAU), economic growth (EG) and economic growth and reforestation (EGR), driven by observed climate between 1990 and 2009, were used for the study. The results indicate that peak and dry season streamflows between 1991 and 2011 have increased by 21% and 37%, respectively, under the current land use in comparison to the baseline due to a decrease in evergreen and secondary forests by 18% and 39%, respectively, and an increase in settlements, mining areas and shrubs/farms by 81%, 310% and 343%, respectively. The potential future LU scenarios suggest that there may be further increases in streamflows, but the historical land use changes between 1991 and 2011 were so substantial that they will continue to impact streamflow changes in any of the future land use scenarios. The study also showed that variability of streamflow changes at the catchment scale was lower than at the subcatchment scale. For the scenarios of potential future LU changes, the BAU shows the highest increases in streamflows, while the EGR shows the least. Policy interventions for effective management of the catchment are recommended.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Impacts of Land Use Changes on the Hydrology of a Lowland Rainforest Catchment in Ghana, West Africa

Aduah

Jewitt

Toucher

2017

Water

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“…This uncertainty complicates the accurate interpretation of climate impact assessment. Therefore, many researchers have attempted to quantify the irreducible uncertainty in hydrologic streamflow projections (New et al, 2007;Wilby, 2005;Kingston and Taylor, 2010), low flow (Wilby and Harris, 2006), flooding (Booij, 2005;Kay et al, 2009;Raff et al, 2009;Moradkhani et al, 2010), and drought (Ghosh and Mujumdar, 2007;Mishra and Singh, 2009). Despite substantial effort of previous studies, however, large uncertainty in climate impact studies still remain .…”

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confidence: 99%

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

Jung

Chang

Moradkhani

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

107

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Abstract. How will the combined impacts of land use change, climate change, and hydrologic modeling influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? Will such changes differ by catchment with different degrees of current and future urban development? We attempt to answer these questions in two catchments with different degrees of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources -general circulation model (GCM) structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, land use change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters -are considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency projections. Two land use change scenarios, conservation and development, representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium high GHG emission (A1B) and development scenarios, and the lowest increase under the combination of low GHG emission (B1) and conservation scenarios. Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change than individual scenarios, it does not linearly increase flood frequency. Changes in flood frequency are more sensitive to climate change than land use change in the two catchments for 2050s . Shorter term flood frequency change, 2 and 5 year floods, is highly affected by GCM structure, while longer term flood frequency change above 25 year floods is dominated by natural variability. Projected flood frequency changes more significantly in Johnson creek than Fanno creek. This result indicates that, under expected Correspondence to: H. Chang (changh@pdx.edu) climate change conditions, adaptive urban planning based on the conservation scenario could be more effective in less developed Johnson catchment than in the already developed Fanno catchment.

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“…Hydroclimatic modelling efforts currently indicate that water resource responses to climate change impacts are both global and local in scale. Altered precipitation patterns will reduce system yields because of streamflow changes, increased flooding, and changes in ecohydrologic factors particularly vegetation patterns (Moradkhani, Baird, & Wherry, 2010;Najafi, Moradkhani, & Jung, 2011).…”

Section: Introduction a Water Sustainabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Supply, Demand, and Quality Indicators for Assessing the Spatial Distribution of Water Resource Vulnerability in the Columbia River Basin

et al. 2013

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We investigated water resource vulnerability in the US portion of the Columbia River basin (CRB) using multiple indicators representing water supply, water demand, and water quality. Based on the US county scale, spatial analysis was conducted using various biophysical and socio-economic indicators that control water vulnerability. Water supply vulnerability and water demand vulnerability exhibited a similar spatial clustering of hotspots in areas where agricultural lands and variability of precipitation were high but dam storage capacity was low. The hotspots of water quality vulnerability were clustered around the main stem of the Columbia River where major population and agricultural centres are located. This multiple equal weight indicator approach confirmed that different drivers were associated with different vulnerability maps in the sub-basins of the CRB. Water quality variables are more important than water supply and water demand variables in the Willamette River basin, whereas water supply and demand variables are more important than water quality variables in the Upper Snake and Upper Columbia River basins. This result suggests that current water resources management and practices drive much of the vulnerability within the study area. The analysis suggests the need for increased coordination of water management across multiple levels of water governance to reduce water resource vulnerability in the CRB and a potentially different weighting scheme that explicitly takes into account the input of various water stakeholders.RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Nous étudions la vulnérabilité de la ressource en eau dans la partie étatsunienne du bassin du fleuve Columbia à l'aide d'indicateurs multiples représentant l'apport d'eau, la demande en eau et la qualité de l'eau. En nous basant sur l'échelle des comtés des États-Unis, nous avons fait une analyse spatiale à l'aide de divers indicateurs biophysiques et socio-économiques qui déterminent la vulnérabilité de l'eau. La vulnérabilité de l'apport d'eau et la vulnérabilité de la demande en eau ont exhibé un regroupement spatial similaire de points chauds dans les régions où il y avait beaucoup de terres agricoles et une grande variabilité dans les précipitations mais où il y avait une faible capacité de stockage par des barrages. Les points chauds de vulnérabilité de la qualité de l'eau étaient regroupés autour du bras principal du fleuve Columbia, où sont situés les principaux centres urbains et agricoles. Cette approche basée sur des indicateurs multiples de poids égaux a confirmé que différents facteurs étaient associés à différentes cartes de vulnérabilité dans les sous-bassins du bassin du fleuve Columbia. Les variables de qualité de l'eau sont plus importantes que les variables d'apport d'eau et de demande en eau dans le bassin de la rivière Willamette alors que les variables d'apport d'eau et de demande en eau sont plus importantes que les variables de qualité de l'eau dans les bassins des parties supérieures de la rivière Snake et du fleuve ...

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Assessment of climate change impact on floodplain and hydrologic ecotones

Cited by 58 publications

References 24 publications

Assessing Impacts of Land Use Changes on the Hydrology of a Lowland Rainforest Catchment in Ghana, West Africa

Assessing Impacts of Land Use Changes on the Hydrology of a Lowland Rainforest Catchment in Ghana, West Africa

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

Water Supply, Demand, and Quality Indicators for Assessing the Spatial Distribution of Water Resource Vulnerability in the Columbia River Basin

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