Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

Abstract

Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5˚C in overwintering T October-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with T max � 30˚C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD

Genetic Population Structure of Wild Pigs in Southern Texas

“…Diseases that cross the wildlife, human, and livestock interface have health, economic, and social ramifications over entire geographic regions, as evidenced by highly publicized recent outbreaks of influenza, rabies, bovine tuberculosis, and foot and mouth disease. Wildlife management challenges are expected to increase in coming years through global climatic changes, land-cover and land-use changes resulting from anthropogenic activities, and natural and unnatural movements of pathogens [ 4 , 5 , 6 ].…”

Multiplex PCR assay for the identification of eight Anopheles species belonging to the Hyrcanus, Barbirostris and Lindesayi groups

“…sinensis (0.02%) [ 51 , 52 ]. In addition, the annual distribution of P. vivax cases varies with environment factors that impact on mosquito population densities, which may be further impacted by climate change [ 53 , 54 ]. Thus, continuous monitoring of malaria vectors is needed.…”

Intensive West Nile Virus Circulation in Serbia in 2018—Results of Integrated Surveillance Program

“…As already mentioned, the WNV surveillance program in 2018 started in June, but considering a very early WNV circulation in the environment in the 2018 season, the start of the surveillance activities needed to be shifted to May. Such a situation also indicates the need to include meteorological data and predictions [ 46 ] into the risk assessment during the preparation and implementation of the WNV surveillance program for each year. Interestingly, in another district—Braničevo District, with a high number of reported human WNV cases (21)—all findings obtained during the integrated WNV surveillance were negative.…”

“…Collaboration between veterinary and human health services as well as medical entomologists and ornithologists, and the coordination and management of data at both national and local levels, are the prerequisites for a successful program and essential in providing early warning and adequate protection of human and animal health. Based on the obtained results and anticipated continued intense circulation of WNV, further studies, especially those on the introduction of other animals species (e.g., cattle and pigs) as sentinel animals, usage of meteorological data [ 46 ] and studies on local temperature and humidity predictions as well as continuous monitoring and surveillance of WNV infection and virus epidemiology in Serbia in the coming years, will be of vital importance toward further enhancement of early detection capacity and sensitivity, and improvement of the capacity to indicate the spatial distribution of the risk for WNV circulation and human and animal infection.…”