Assessment of Climate Changes and Their Impact on Barley Yield in Mediterranean Environment Using NEX-GDDP Downscaled GCMs and DSSAT

Al-Bakri, Jawad; Farhan, Ibrahim; Al‐Qinna, Mohammed; Al-Karablieh, Emad K.; Bergouli, Karim; McDonnell, Rachael

doi:10.1007/s41748-021-00238-1

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…For comparison, if the Initial Soil Water Content is 20% TAW, the average change is between −10.4% and −27.6%. This confirms the importance of this parameter for barley cropping in the Mediterranean, as highlighted by Cammarano et al [11] and Al-Bakri et al [15].…”

Section: Projected Impact Of Climate Change On Rainfed Barley Yieldsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…These findings compare with what was obtained under SSP2-4.5 (the scenario with the same radiative forcing as RCP4.5) in the mid-century period, +12% to -42%, and are also comparable with the yield changes estimated by Al-Bakri et al [13] for barley yield change in Jordan in 2050: between +5% and −51%. Al-Bakri et al [15] also indicate a grain yield change ranging (depending on the various analysed locations) from +6% to −17% under RCP4.5, between 2030 and 2050, and from +30% to −27% between 2080 and 2100. The respective results for RCP8.5 range instead from −9% to −58% (2030-2050) and +11% to −40% (2080-2100).…”

Section: Projected Impact Of Climate Change On Rainfed Barley Yieldmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…This was supported by Al-Bakri et al [13] when focusing on barley growth in Jordan. The same authors analysed three case studies representing semi-arid Mediterranean environments in Jordan (BSk in Köppen-Geiger classification [14]), considering RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 at both the mid-century (2030-2050) and end-century (2080-2100) time periods [15]. The results of their study indicate a decrease in barley yields between 5% and 30%, with an average decrease of 12% in grain yields and of 16% in biological yields due to drier environmental conditions [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain

Saretto,

Roy,

Encarnação Coelho

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration. Starting with a reference Initial Soil Water Content (ISWC), different soil water contents within barley rooting depth were modelled to account for decreases in soil water availability. We then evaluated the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates. We show average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century), with ISWC being the main factor determining yields. Irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources. Mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. Changing sowing dates does not consistently improve yields. We demonstrate that regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals.

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Section: Projected Impact Of Climate Change On Rainfed Barley Yieldsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Projected Impact Of Climate Change On Rainfed Barley Yieldmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain

Saretto,

Roy,

Encarnação Coelho

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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“…The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 significantly contributes to climate change projection studies and offers higher temporal and spatial resolution than other climate data products like HadEX3 or the Berkeley Earth daily climate (Murali et al, 2023). In short, the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset has been widely used in regional climate change research, especially in extreme climates (Al-Bakri et al, 2021;Shao et al, 2023). Thus, this study aims to project regional scale HWs by using the latest released NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset.…”

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confidence: 99%

Projected heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China

Dong,

Tao,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Front. Earth Sci.

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Introduction: Heatwaves (HWs) are the serious natural disaster that exert great impacts on human health and social economy. Projecting future changes in HWs is crucial for the development of effective adaptation strategies.Method: This study investigates the variations of HWs in Xinjiang for three time periods (near-term, mid-term, and long-term) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) using multi-model ensemble (MME). To enhance confidence in HWs projection, we evaluate the performance of 17 climate models in simulating HWs in terms of interannual variability and spatial patterns using interannual variability skill score (IVS) and distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO), respectively, and generate MME using the overall performance.Results: Compared to the observed data, the overall performance of MME outperforms most of individual models, although many models effectively capture the characteristics of HWs. Projections indicate that HWs in Xinjiang will become more longer lasting and severe. Specifically, heatwave frequency (HWF) and heatwave duration (HWD) are projected to reach 7.5 times and 61 days, respectively, in the long-term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatial distribution of HWs exhibits significant heterogeneity, with high value regions primarily distributed in eastern Xinjiang and the eastern part of southern Xinjiang. Although the HWs area is projected to expand under all scenarios, the spatial pattern is anticipated to remain largely unchanged.Conclusion: These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of future variations in HWs, which are necessary for improving regional adaptive capacity to extreme heat risk.

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Leveraging Geoinformatics to Analyze Environmental Contamination Amidst Climate Change in the MENA Region: A Review

Al-Quraishi

2024

The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry

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Assessment of Climate Changes and Their Impact on Barley Yield in Mediterranean Environment Using NEX-GDDP Downscaled GCMs and DSSAT

Cited by 11 publications

References 28 publications

Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain

Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain

Projected heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China

Leveraging Geoinformatics to Analyze Environmental Contamination Amidst Climate Change in the MENA Region: A Review

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