Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran

Soltani, Mohsen; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald; Stan, Kayla; Sohrabi, Mohammad M.; Molanejad, M.; Sabziparvar, A A; Saadatabadi, Abbas Ranjbar; Ranjbar, F.; Rousta, Imán; Zawar-Reza, Peyman; Khoshakhlagh, Faramarz; Soltanzadeh, Iman; Babu, C. A.; Ghasem, Azizi; Martin, M. V.

doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1609-5

Cited by 151 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Although no age data were collected in our study, it is likely that many small Persian oak trees located at higher elevations were about the same age. These high-elevation stands show the higher density, supporting the hypothesis that episodic tree mortality is related to dry site conditions, here likely relate to warming and drought events (Ogaya & Peñuelas, 2007;Soltani et al, 2015), and high stand density (Chapman et al, 2006;Gea-Izquierdo et al, 2009;Linares et al, 2010;Lechuga et al, 2017).…”

Section: Competition Increases Persian Oak Decline and Mortalitysupporting

confidence: 73%

“…At regional scale, the spatial and temporal patterns of climate extreme indices in the Zagros range support a warming trend over the period 1975-2010 (Soltani et al, 2015). Over the last 15 years (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010), the annual frequency of warm days and nights has increased by 12 and 14 days/decade, respectively.…”

Section: Climate Trends and Likely Influence On Persian Oak Decline Amentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Notwithstanding, it has been noted an increasing trend of warm extremes with elevation, suggesting a higher impact of the warming trend in the mountains. Specifically, the trend in maximum temperature (see details in Soltani et al, 2015) shows positive correlation with elevation in the Zagros mountain range. This observation may be related to the increasing trend of crown dieback (Fig.…”

Section: Climate Trends and Likely Influence On Persian Oak Decline Amentioning

confidence: 92%

“…The annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures averaged across Iran both increased by 0.031 and 0.059 °C/decade. The probability of cold nights has decreased from more than 20% in 1975-1986 to less than 15% in 1999-2010, whereas the mean frequency of warm days has increased between the first 12-year period (1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986) and the recent 12-year period (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)) from 18 to 40%, respectively (Soltani et al, 2015). Nonetheless, the same spatio-temporal study revealed that there are no systematic regional trends in total precipitation, nor in the frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events (Soltani et al, 2015, and references therein).…”

Section: Climate Trends and Likely Influence On Persian Oak Decline Amentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability of cold nights has decreased from more than 20% in 1975-1986 to less than 15% in 1999-2010, whereas the mean frequency of warm days has increased between the first 12-year period (1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986) and the recent 12-year period (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)) from 18 to 40%, respectively (Soltani et al, 2015). Nonetheless, the same spatio-temporal study revealed that there are no systematic regional trends in total precipitation, nor in the frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events (Soltani et al, 2015, and references therein). Indeed, statistically significant trends in extreme precipitation events have been observed at less than 15% of the investigated weather stations, with no spatially coherent pattern of change, whereas statistically significant changes in extreme temperature events have occurred at more than 85% of the investigated weather stations.…”

Section: Climate Trends and Likely Influence On Persian Oak Decline Amentioning

confidence: 99%

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Site factors and stand conditions associated with Persian oak decline in Zagros mountain forests

Hosseini

Linares

2018

For. syst.

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Aim of study: Drought and stand structure are major and interconnected drivers of forest dynamics. Water shortage and tree-to-tree competition may interact under the current climate change scenario, increasing tree mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate climate trends, site and stand structure effects on tree mortality, with the main hypothesis that drought-induced mortality is higher as competition increases.Area of study: Persian oak forests from Zagros Range, western Iran. Material and methods:We split the study area into 20 topographical units (TUs), based on aspect, slope and elevation. In each TU, three 0.1 ha plots were established to quantify site and stand characteristics, namely the diameter of all trees and shrubs, stand density and basal area, canopy dieback and mortality. In addition, soil profiles were analyzed to obtain physical and chemical soil properties. Six transects 100 m length were established per TU to measure tree-to-tree competition for alive and dead trees.Main results: The highest mortality rates and crown dieback were found at higher elevations and southern and western aspects. Our findings confirm increasing rates of tree mortality in stands with higher tree density and shallow soils. As regard links between climate change and forest decline, our results suggest that changing forest structure may have a significant impact on dust emission.Research highlights: Despite severe dry years occurred recently the study area, they are not significantly different than those recorded in the past. Stand structure appears as a modulating factor of climate change effects, linked to competition-related tree vulnerability to drought.

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Section: Competition Increases Persian Oak Decline and Mortalitysupporting

confidence: 73%

Section: Climate Trends and Likely Influence On Persian Oak Decline Amentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Climate Trends and Likely Influence On Persian Oak Decline Amentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Climate Trends and Likely Influence On Persian Oak Decline Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Trends and Likely Influence On Persian Oak Decline Amentioning

confidence: 99%

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Site factors and stand conditions associated with Persian oak decline in Zagros mountain forests

Hosseini

Linares

2018

For. syst.

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Traditional Water Harvesting inIran

Okhravi

Eslamian

2021

Handbook of Water Harvesting and Conservation

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A spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation anomalies using rainfall Gini index between 1980 and 2022

Sahbeni

Pleynet

Jarocki

2023

Atmospheric Science Letters

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As a reaction to the expanding challenges associated with social susceptibility and their interconnection to diverse environmental threats, parametric insurance plays a key role as an innovation tool in the insurance sector to enhance social resilience to natural disasters and extreme climatic conditions, which can tremendously impact several economic sectors, including agriculture and as a result food security. In this context, this study investigates the association between rainfall Gini index and drought events in Northern Europe. For this purpose, we acquired ERA5 data for daily precipitation for five locations from 1980 to 2022. Gini Index (GI) values were calculated and analyzed for each location with the Mann-Kendall test at a 5% significance level. As expected, a minimal decreasing trend has been observed for daily precipitation, while an increasing trend was recorded for Gini Index. In addition, data on the Soil Moisture Index (SMI) and top drought events were extracted from the European Drought Observatory (EDO) to explore their potential association with the Gini index over time and space. Although a moderately low to negligible correlation, ranging between -0.27 and 0.02, was found between SMI and GI, a qualitative comparison between major drought episodes and Gini index anomaly showed that similar spatiotemporal patterns are present across the region, particularly for extreme drought events in 1996-1997 and 2003. The current study elucidates the rainfall Gini Index's efficiency as a drought indicator for qualitative analysis, yet more work must be conducted to quantitatively evaluate its association with drought magnitude.

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Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran

Cited by 151 publications

References 50 publications

Site factors and stand conditions associated with Persian oak decline in Zagros mountain forests

Site factors and stand conditions associated with Persian oak decline in Zagros mountain forests

Traditional Water Harvesting inIran

A spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation anomalies using rainfall Gini index between 1980 and 2022

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