Assessment of COVID-19 Pandemic in Nepal: A Lockdown Scenario Analysis

Abstract

The Government of Nepal issued a nationwide lockdown from 24 March to 21 July 2020, prohibiting domestic and international travels, closure of the border and non-essential services. There were only two confirmed cases from 610 Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) tests and no fatalities when the government introduced nationwide lockdown. This study aimed to explore the overall scenario of COVID-19 including spatial distribution of cases; government efforts, and impact on public health, socio-economy, and education during the lockdown in Nepal. We collated and analyzed data using official figures from the Nepalese Ministry of Health and Population. Nepal had performed 7,791 RT-PCR tests for COVID-19, the highest number of tests during the lockdown. It has recorded its highest daily rise in coronavirus infections with a total of 740 new cases from the total of 4,483 RT-PCR tests performed on a single day. Nepal had reported a total of 17,994 positive cases and 40 deaths at the end of lockdown. The spatial distribution clearly shows that the cases were rapidly spreading from the southern part of the country where most points of entry and exit from India are located. To contain the spread of the virus, the government has also initiated various preventive measures and strategies during the lockdown. The Government of Nepal needs to allocate more resources, increase its capacity to test and trace, establish dedicated isolation and quarantine facility and impose local restrictions such as a local lockdown based on risk assessment rather than a nationwide lockdown.

Diagnostic Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test in relation to RT-PCR Cq Value

“…The study conducted in China illustrated higher SARS-CoV-2 infection in males, 63.8% rather than in females, 36.2% which is in correspondence with our study analysis which demonstrated 68.7% and 31.3% male and female infection rate, respectively [ 7 ]. Our study also demonstrated the more infected age group, 20–29 years followed by age group 30–39 years, corresponding with the results obtained from the study conducted by Sharma et al illustrating males of age group 21–30 years to be more infected [ 22 ]. In contrast, one study reported a higher incidence rate among females [ 23 ], whereas some studies suggest higher infection in the age group 30–39 years followed by 20–29 years of age [ 24 ].…”

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice Toward COVID-19 Among Sherubtse College Students in Bhutan: A Web-Based Cross-Sectional Study

“…During the initial phase of the pandemic, each country adopted various responses to COVID-19 to slow transmission and to prevent oversaturation of the healthcare systems (6)(7)(8)(9). Bhutan adopted proactive prevention methods to limit community transmission.…”

Early Detection of COVID-19 Waves From Cases in a Neighboring Country With an Open Border

“…Despite the promising results, the analysis considered here has few limitations. This analysis uses data that is different from the true data on the ground due to less testing and inefficient counting of new and death cases by Nepal and India (43)(44)(45)(46). Similarly, multivariate distance correlation can be used to determine the dependencies by including other factors of transmission and vaccination rate.…”