Assessment of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Share of High-Tech Products in the U.K. Foreign Trade

Abstract

The paper presents an original approach to assessing cyclical fluctuations in the share of high-tech products in the foreign trade of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and the Northern Ireland. This approach can serve as a foundation for decision-making at a state level regarding issues of regulating Ukrainian development in innovation, science, and technology. It also reveals the economic content and distinguishes the influence of separate structural components (linear, accelerated, and cyclical growth) on the changes in the share of high-tech products in the foreign trade. Further, the analysis also determines two important relative indicators: share of high-tech exports in total U.K. manufactured exports and share of high-tech exports in the country’s GDP. The dynamics cycles of hightech exports in the United Kingdom with periods of 4.2 and 4.3 years are determined and the extent of the cyclical component’s influence on the overall trend is calculated. This paper is part of a research project that uses the same original approach to analyze various countries with significant high-tech exports on the global scale.