Assessment of Different Non-Invasive Score Modalities in Prediction of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis

Abstract

Background: Varices are a serious consequence of portal hypertension, and variceal bleeding is a life-threatening complication occurring in up to 30% of patients with cirrhosis. Despite the great improvement in diagnosis and the available therapeutic modalities, mortality from acute variceal bleeding may still reach up to 20%. Therefore, our aim was to assess the role of noninvasive score modalities in the prediction of the presence of EVs & to predict EVs severity. Methods: This Comparative cross-sectional study was conducted on a cohort of 90 cirrhotic patients. All patients were subjected to investigations include complete blood count, liver and kidney function tests, bleeding profile, random blood sugar, and serum sodium. The following scores were estimated: Child-Pugh score, MELD -Na + score, AAR, APRI, FIB-4, and King's score. Upper GI endoscopy was done for evaluation of presence or absence of EVs. Results: Our results revealed that Kings Score is the most sensitive and specific score in predicting the presence of EVs, followed by APRI score while AAR score has the least sensitivity and specificity.FIB-4 score is the most sensitive scoring system in predicting severe EVs, followed by APRI, Kings, and AAR scores. Regarding specificity, King's Score is the most specific one followed by FIB-4, APRI and AAR. Conclusions: King's score has the highest sensitivity and specificity in EVs prediction followed by APRI. Regarding severe EVs, FIB-4 score is the most sensitive scoring system in the prediction of severe EVs. However, King's score is the most specific one.