Assessment of Drought Hazard Change in China under 2 ℃, 3 ℃ and 4 ℃ Temperature Rise Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

Abstract

Drought is one of the most disastrous extreme climate events. In-depth studies on the response of drought to climate warming are beneficial to improve drought risk management. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on eighteen climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Four drought characteristic indices (drought frequency, duration, intensity, and peak) were extracted and the drought hazard index (DHI) was constructed to evaluate drought hazards in China for the historical reference period and future 2, 3 and 4 temperature rise scenarios, and then the change in future drought hazard was analyzed. The results showed that the drought frequency in the eastern monsoon region of China had a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north and increased overall with the increase in warming level. Drought duration, intensity and peak showed a spatial pattern of high in northwest China and low in southeast China and increased significantly with increasing warming level. The DHI was relatively high in the northwest inland and southeast coast of China. Under the 2, 3 and 4 temperature increase scenarios in the future, except for the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the DHI in other climate regions in China will increase compared with that in the historical reference period. The national average increase values of DHI under the 3 and 4 temperature rise scenarios reach 1.5 times and 2 times that under the 2 temperature rise scenario, respectively. Hosted fileessoar.10512127.1.docx available at https://authorea.com/users/554242/articles/605537assessment-of-drought-hazard-change-in-china-under-2-3-and-4-temperature-rise-scenariosbased-on-cmip6-models