Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises

Abstract

Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks.

Measuring mobility, disease connectivity and individual risk: a review of using mobile phone data and mHealth for travel medicine

“…The pathogens introduced by travellers may lead to secondary transmission and local outbreaks, as has been observed in severe acute respiratory syndrome, influenza, Ebola, Zika, yellow fever and measles, among others, or to the appearance of diseases such as malaria in non-endemic areas following migration for work or travel to visit friends and relatives. [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] The spread of infectious diseases and their potential health risk in travellers has resulted in substantial concerns and challenges to global health systems and economies, [14][15][16][17] with a need to place more emphasis on understanding population mobility, infectious disease connectivity and the individual health risk of travellers.…”

Emerging infectious diseases: A proactive approach

“…Many researchers and policymakers within the global health community are busy undertaking the task of identifying our shortcomings in the realm of epidemic preparedness and conceptualizing ways to enhance our capacity to respond to infectious disease threats along several of these fronts. For example, Sands et al (15) have proposed a comprehensive approach to improving our understanding of the world's economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises that requires data collection and analysis to be undertaken by multiple organizations at multiple levels.…”

Contributions of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Implementing the Global Health Security Agenda in 17 Partner Countries

“…CDC's continuing work with partner countries ensures sustainability and further progress rather than regression. Furthermore, investments in global health security have been shown to have positive health, security, and economic impacts (31,32). These improvements in international capacity to rapidly detect, respond to, and control infectious disease outbreaks and other public health threats at their sources translate into enhanced global health security, because fewer public health threats can spread throughout a country and reach other nations, including the United States.…”