Assessment of environmental risks of underground transport infrastructure development by BOCR method

Abstract

Formulation of the problem. Solving the problems of urban transport communications, in particular the constantly growing intensity of automobile traffic in megalopolises, is one of the main directions of minimizing the environmental and man-made risks of the urban environment. Global concepts of greening large cities pay considerable attention to the possibilities of underground space to take on the functions of the most dangerous and risky surface objects and communications, since the impact of any underground object on the environment is much lower (than similar on the surface) and can be better controlled. At the same time, planning for the development of underground transport infrastructure should be based on a systematic methodology and tools for analyzing complex systems. Purpose. It consists in the use of system tools (BOCR method - criteria of benefits, opportunities, costs and risks) for planning underground transport infrastructure of large cities to ensure minimization of environmental and man-made risks of urban space and prioritization for the construction of road tunnels (for example, the General Plan of the Kiev city). Methodology. A methodology and decision support toolkit for calculating the priorities of alternatives based on hierarchical and network criteria models are proposed. The modified BOCR method developed by the authors (N. Pankratova, N.I. Nedashkovskaya) was applied to assess decision alternatives taking into account benefits, costs, opportunities and risks. Results. System models of two road tunnels, according to the General plan of the Kiev city until 2025 were developed. Assessment of the models using the BOCR method (criteria for benefits, opportunities, costs and risks) was performed. The priorities of alternatives for tunnels' routes aggregated over a network of parameters and a reasonably expedient sequence of their construction were calculated according to the criteria for reducing the environmental and man-made risks of the urbanized space. Scientific novelty. For the first time, the target function of the system model for the development of underground infrastructure in large cities is to minimize the environmental and man-made risks of urban space. The capabilities of the modified BOCR method have been expanded and two alternative tunnel track models have been successfully tested. Practical significance. The research methods and results provide investors, city state administrations and public organizations with an effective toolkit for assessing the priority of the construction of underground urban facilities to regulate urban development in order to improve environmental standards and the safety of life in megacities.