Assessment of Extreme and Metocean Conditions in the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone for Wave Energy

Nilsson, Erik; Wrang, Linus; Rutgersson, Anna; Dingwell, Adam; Strömstedt, Erland

doi:10.3390/atmos11030229

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 61 publications

(135 reference statements)

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“…This is consistent with the typical synoptic weather pattern of middle latitudes but modulated by bathymetry and fetch conditions, as well as meso-scale weather effects (Soomere 2003. The pattern of 100-year return value estimates of significant wave height, based on 10 km resolution simulations for 1958-2009, is represented here by the 99.9 th percentile significant wave height in Figure 3 (in agreement with Aarnes et al, 2012;Björkqvist et al, 2018;Nilsson et al, 2020). The northern basins typically experience reduced wave heights, both due to the shorter fetch conditions, as well as the occurrence of sea-ice limiting the wave growth during the season when the highest waves otherwise can be expected to occur (e.g.…”

Section: Extreme Wavessupporting

confidence: 87%

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Rutgersson

Kjellström

Haapala

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and they can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared and to save human lives and to invest in adaptation options. Natural Hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. We here summarise existing knowledge of extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with the focus on past 200 years, as well as future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructures, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large scale atmospheric circulation to climate change, but also concerning specific events, for example, occurrences of marine heat waves and small-scale variability of precipitation. Suggestions for future research includes further development of high-resolution Earth System models, and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to expected impact of climate change, changes are expected for sea-level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase) and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding and extreme waves) the change depends on the area and time period studies.

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Section: Extreme Wavessupporting

confidence: 87%

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Rutgersson

Kjellström

Haapala

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The pattern of 100-year return-value estimates of significant wave height, based on 10 km resolution simulations for 1958-2009, is represented here by the 99.9th percentile significant wave height in Fig. 3 (in agreement with Aarnes et al, 2012;Björkqvist et al, 2018;and Nilsson et al, 2020). The northern basins typically experience reduced wave heights, both due to the shorter fetch conditions and to the occurrence of sea ice limiting the wave growth during the season when the highest waves can otherwise be expected to occur (e.g.…”

Section: Extreme Wavessupporting

confidence: 79%

“…Most of the state-of-the-art climate models reproduce the structure and magnitude of the NAO reasonably well (e.g. Davini and Cagnazzo, 2014;Ning and Bradley, 2016;Deser et al, 2017;Gong et al, 2017).…”

Section: Changes In Circulation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region

et al. 2022

Self Cite

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Abstract. A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.

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“…Extreme sea states are not only important in the design of offshore renewable energy structures, but also in the operation and maintenance and site selection process [28,29]. Such considerations further highlight the importance of understanding and characterizing extreme sea states.…”

Section: Global Atmospheric Reanalysis Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Analysis of Environmental Contour Approaches to Estimating Extreme Waves for Offshore Installations for the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

Wrang

Katsidoniotaki

Nilsson

et al. 2021

JMSE

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At the stage of design load analysis for offshore installations such as wave energy systems, a critical step is the determination of environmental cases to be evaluated for the definition of the characteristic design load. A commonly used methodology for load case selection, applied in multiple studies and recommended by technical specifications and guidelines, is the environmental contour approach. Here, 50-year environmental contours were generated for four study sites located in the North Sea, Skagerrak and the Baltic Sea by considering both observations and hindcast (model) data. For the construction of the contours, the well-established inverse first-order method (I-FORM) and a modified version using principal component analysis (PCA) were both examined. Furthermore, a 2-dimensional peaks-over-threshold (2D POT) method was evaluated. It was found that a version of the regular I-FORM was able to produce satisfactory contours which properly accounted for the highest waves. When using PCA, the dependency in the data was not properly captured by the probability functions under consideration. The 2D POT method, where applicable, was found to underestimate the extreme sea states. Comparisons between contours obtained from observations and hindcast data showed that the contours may differ substantially depending on the site and method, and thus care must be exercised when using hindcast data for such purposes.

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Assessment of Extreme and Metocean Conditions in the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone for Wave Energy

Cited by 5 publications

References 61 publications

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region

Comparative Analysis of Environmental Contour Approaches to Estimating Extreme Waves for Offshore Installations for the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

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