Assessment of extreme flows and uncertainty under  climate change: disentangling the uncertainty contribution of  representative concentration pathways, global  climate models and internal climate variability

Gao, Chao; Booij, Martijn J.; Xu, Yue‐Ping

doi:10.5194/hess-24-3251-2020

Cited by 33 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 50 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Subsequently, the rain-gauge-and SPP-based daily streamflow data sets in Period II that correspond to the observed daily high, normal, and low flows were quantitatively evaluated in accordance with CC and BIAS. Extreme flows are essential for water resources management [40]. This study assessed the performance of the four SPPs in reproducing daily streamflow at different levels.…”

Section: Daily Streamflow Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluations of Multiple Satellite Precipitation Products in the Yellow River Source Region of China

Zhao

Ren

Yuan

et al. 2020

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Comprehensively evaluating satellite precipitation products (SPPs) for hydrological simulations on watershed scales is necessary given that the quality of different SPPs varies remarkably in different regions. The Yellow River source region (YRSR) of China was chosen as the study area. Four SPPs were statistically evaluated, namely, the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42V7, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement final run (IMERG-F), and gauge-corrected Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP-Gauge) products. Subsequently, the hydrological utility of these SPPs was assessed via the variable infiltration capacity hydrological model on a daily temporal scale. Results show that the four SPPs generally demonstrate similar spatial distribution pattern of precipitation to that of the ground observations. In the period of January 1998 to December 2016, 3B42V7 outperforms PERSIANN-CDR on basin scale. In the period of April 2014 to December 2016, GSMaP-Gauge demonstrates the highest precipitation monitoring capability and hydrological utility among all SPPs on grid and basin scales. In general, 3B42V7, IMERG-F, and GSMaP-Gauge show a satisfactory hydrological performance in streamflow simulations in YRSR. IMERG-F has an improved hydrological utility than 3B42V7 in YRSR.

show abstract

Section: Daily Streamflow Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluations of Multiple Satellite Precipitation Products in the Yellow River Source Region of China

Zhao

Ren

Yuan

et al. 2020

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…4), we assume an unchanged land use and that vegetation has not adapted its root-zone storage capacity to the aridity and seasonality of the 2K climate. This scenario implies stationarity of model parameters by using S R,max,A in both the historical and 2K runs, a common assumption of many climate change impact assessment studies (Booij, 2005;de Wit et al, 2007;Prudhomme et al, 2014;Hakala et al, 2019;Brunner et al, 2019;Gao et al, 2020;Rottler et al, 2020). This is the benchmark scenario against which we compare the hydrological response considering non-stationarity of the system, as in the following three scenarios.…”

Section: Scenario 2kmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of ecosystem adaptation on hydrological model predictions in response to climate change

Bouaziz

Aalbers

Weerts

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. To predict future hydrological behavior in a changing world, often use is made of models calibrated on past observations, disregarding that hydrological systems, hence model parameters, will change as well. Yet, ecosystems likely adjust their root-zone storage capacity, which is the key parameter of any hydrological system, in response to climate change. In addition, other species might become dominant, both under natural and anthropogenic influence. In this study, we propose a top-down approach, which directly uses projected climate data to estimate how vegetation adapts its root-zone storage capacity at the catchment scale in response to changes in magnitude and seasonality of hydro-climatic variables. Additionally, the Budyko characteristics of different dominant ecosystems in sub-catchments are used to simulate the hydrological behavior of potential future land-use change, in a space-for-time exchange. We hypothesize that changes in the predicted hydrological response as a result of 2 K global warming are more pronounced when explicitly considering changes in the sub-surface system properties induced by vegetation adaptation to changing environmental conditions. We test our hypothesis in the Meuse basin in four scenarios designed to predict the hydrological response to 2 K global warming in comparison to current-day conditions using a process-based hydrological model with (a) a stationary system, i.e. no changes in the root-zone storage capacity of vegetation and historical land use, (b) an adapted root-zone storage capacity in response to a changing climate but with historical land use, and (c, d) an adapted root-zone storage capacity considering two hypothetical changes in land use from coniferous plantations/agriculture towards broadleaved forest and vice-versa. We found that the larger root-zone storage capacities (+34 %) in response to a more pronounced seasonality with drier summers under 2 K global warming strongly alter seasonal patterns of the hydrological response, with an overall increase in mean annual evaporation (+4 %), a decrease in recharge (−6 %) and a decrease in streamflow (−7 %), compared to predictions with a stationary system. By integrating a time-dynamic representation of changing vegetation properties in hydrological models, we make a potential step towards more reliable hydrological predictions under change.

show abstract

“…The RCP scenario also carries uncertainty because it is a model that is predicted based on carbon emissions and human activity. However, many studies have been conducted to quantify and reduce the uncertainty of the RCP scenario [31].…”

Section: Data 241 Climate Change Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Flood Damage in the Seoul Metropolitan Government Using Climate Change Scenarios and Mitigation Technologies

Kim

Kang

2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The social and economic damages caused by climate change have increased rapidly over the last several decades, with increasing instances of heatwaves, floods, and extreme rainfall. In 2011, heavy rain of 110.5 mm/hr caused great damage to the Seoul Metropolitan Government. Most of the causes of flooding in modern cities include a sharp increase in non-permeable pavement and a lack of water circulation facilities. It is predicted that heavy rainfalls will occur in the future, causing large amounts of local damage. In this study, possible future flood damages were analyzed using climate change scenarios based on the Korean Peninsula. ArcGIS was adopted to perform analyses, and Huff curves were employed for precipitation analysis. Water tanks, permeable pavement, and ecological waterways were installed as mitigation technologies. These three technologies can contribute to flooding mitigation by increasing the rainwater storage capacity. This study suggests that all floods can be reduced by RCP 8.5 by 2050 and 2060. Although there will be run-off after 2050, it is believed that technology will significantly reduce the volume and possibility of floods. It is recommended that a one-year analysis should be conducted in consideration of the maintenance aspects that will arise in the future.

show abstract

Assessment of extreme flows and uncertainty under climate change: disentangling the uncertainty contribution of representative concentration pathways, global climate models and internal climate variability

Cited by 33 publications

References 50 publications

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluations of Multiple Satellite Precipitation Products in the Yellow River Source Region of China

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluations of Multiple Satellite Precipitation Products in the Yellow River Source Region of China

The importance of ecosystem adaptation on hydrological model predictions in response to climate change

Analysis of Flood Damage in the Seoul Metropolitan Government Using Climate Change Scenarios and Mitigation Technologies

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About