Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP

Lee, Jiwoo; Hong, Song‐You; Chang, Eun‐Chul; Suh, Myoung‐Seok; Kang, Hyun‐Suk

doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1841-6

Cited by 143 publications

(99 citation statements)

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“…go.kr/cordex/download.do, last access: 18 May 2018). A series of studies based on RCMs within CORDEX-EA has been conducted to project extreme and mean precipitation and temperature in East Asia (Jin et al, 2016;Lee et al, 2014;Niu et al, 2015;Park et al, 2016;Tang et al, 2016;Um et al, 2017), but little attention has been paid to quantify the contributions of the uncertainty in future climate projection over China.…”

Section: H Gu Et Al: Ensemble Future Climate Projections and Uncertmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Yang

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An ensemble simulation of five regional climate models (RCMs) from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment in East Asia is evaluated and used to project future regional climate change in China. The influences of model uncertainty and internal variability on projections are also identified. The RCMs simulate the historical climate and future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 scenario. The simulations for five subregions in China, including northeastern China, northern China, southern China, northwestern China, and the Tibetan Plateau, are highlighted in this study. Results show that (1) RCMs can capture the climatology, annual cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation and that a multimodel ensemble (MME) outperforms that of an individual RCM. The added values for RCMs are confirmed by comparing the performance of RCMs and global climate models (GCMs) in reproducing annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperature during the historical period. (2) For future (2030)(2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049) climate, the MME indicates consistent warming trends at around 1 • C in the entire domain and projects pronounced warming in northern and western China. The annual precipitation is likely to increase in most of the simulation region, except for the Tibetan Plateau. (3) Generally, the future projected change in annual and seasonal mean temperature by RCMs is nearly consistent with the results from the driving GCM. However, changes in annual and seasonal mean precipitation exhibit significant inter-RCM differences and possess a larger magnitude and variability than the driving GCM. Even opposite signals for projected changes in average precipitation between the MME and the driving GCM are shown over southern China, northeastern China, and the Tibetan Plateau. (4) The uncertainty in projected mean temperature mainly arises from the internal variability over northern and southern China and the model uncertainty over the other three subregions. For the projected mean precipitation, the dominant uncertainty source is the internal variability over most regions, except for the Tibetan Plateau, where the model uncertainty reaches up to 60 %. Moreover, the model uncertainty increases with prediction lead time across all subregions.

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Section: H Gu Et Al: Ensemble Future Climate Projections and Uncertmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Yang

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Their results suggested that RegCM4.0 simulations exhibited marked improvement in producing present-day temperature and precipitation compared with the driving BCC-CSM1.1 model. Lee et al [2014] assessed future climate change over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system-Regional Model Program forced by the Hadley Center Global Environment Model version 2, and their results showed higher reproducibility of extreme precipitation events over South Korea. Previous studies have demonstrated that dynamical downscaling technique can add some value to GCM simulations of climate in China, but most of them were based on CMIP3 results.…”

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confidence: 99%

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

2015

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This study assesses present-day and future precipitation changes over China by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.5.1. The WRF model was driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with the Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component (GFDL-ESM2G) output over China at the resolution of 30 km for the present day and near future (2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results demonstrate that with improved resolution and better representation of finer-scale physical process, dynamical downscaling adds value to the regional precipitation simulation. WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of total precipitation and extreme precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer magnitude. It is able to successfully eliminate the artificial precipitation maximum area simulated by GFDL-ESM2G over the west of the Sichuan Basin, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in both summer and winter. Besides, the regional annual cycle and frequencies of precipitation intensity are also well depicted by WRF. In the future projections, under the RCP4.5 scenario, both models project that summer precipitation over most parts of China will increase, especially in western and northern China, and that precipitation over some southern regions is projected to decrease. The projected increase of future extreme precipitation makes great contributions to the total precipitation increase. In southern regions, the projected larger extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with fewer extreme precipitation frequencies suggest that future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to increase in these regions.

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“…It is generally suggested that for results to be considered credible, surface variables such as precipitation and temperature should be compared with corresponding observations to predict the future scenarios (Liang et al 2004;Wang et al 2004). Note that some diagnostics used in this section are based on Lee et al (2013).The seasonally averaged precipitation for land observed by the APHRODITE and its difference fields between observation and simulated results by the HG2 and RSM are shown in Fig. 2.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Current Climate Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…org for details). Lee et al (2013) assessed future climate change for 2006 to 2050 over East Asia using RCM. They concluded that extreme weather conditions will increase and intensify over South Korea in the near future climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The RSM's ability to provide regional-scale simulation details within a low-resolution global model is evaluated, and the resultant projected near-and far-future climatology are compared with current climatology. Although Lee et al (2013) assessed future climate change over East Asia using the same CORDEX-EA framework and HadGEM2-AO, this study used different RCM and physics schemes, extending the future projection period to 2100 for far-future climate change under RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5. Additionally, we present future projections for the East Asia summer and winter monsoon.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing Future Climate Changes in the East Asian Summer and Winter Monsoon Using Regional Spectral Model

Ham

Lee

Yoshimura

2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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This study investigated potential future climate changes over East Asia with a focus on temperature variation and changes in precipitation as well as future changes in the East Asian monsoon system. The current and future climate projection scenarios are downscaled over East Asia using the regional spectral model (RSM). The representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios driven by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HG2) are used to provide large-scale forcing for the RSM downscaling simulations. Simulations were conducted for the current climate from 1980 to 2005 and two types of future climate between 2020 and 2100. Near-future (2025Near-future ( -2050 and far-future (2075-2100) climate simulations are compared with the current climatology to investigate climatic change over East Asia. The RSM well captures the precipitation and temperature distribution related to the East Asian summer and winter monsoon and mesoscale mountain range with added values, although the wet and cold biases are aggravated in the RSM downscaling. Additionally, short time-scale phenomena such as daily mean temperature and daily precipitation are more accurately reproduced by the RSM than by the HG2. From future climate projection, the increasing temperature trends of each RCP scenario are consistently reproduced in the RSM downscaling; in particular, the result from the RCP 8.5 experiment shows a significantly steeper trend with increasing temperature. Meanwhile, the East Asian monsoon is intensified in the future climate projection by the strengthening North Pacific subtropical high and Okhotsk high in summer and intensified Siberian high in winter. These changes lead to an increase in precipitation for summer and a decrease for winter.

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Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP

Cited by 143 publications

References 50 publications

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

Assessing Future Climate Changes in the East Asian Summer and Winter Monsoon Using Regional Spectral Model

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