Assessment of Future Water Demand for Resilient Water Allocation under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios, a Case of Ghba Subbasin, Northern Ethiopia

Abstract

The impact of climate change on water resources is a global issue with significant regional 
 implications. The Ghba subbasin has experienced a higher socioeconomic change. In this 
 paper, we assess the potential impact of climate change and human activity on water supply 
 and demand in the Ghba subbasin of Ethiopia. We then evaluate the effectiveness of regional 
 adaptation strategies for water supply management under these conditions. To do this, we use 
 the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP) 
 to simulate and analyse future water conditions. After running the model through a calibration 
 and validation process, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and 
 unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change 
 scenarios. The results showed that the model's performance, calibration, and validation were 
 all satisfactory. The analysis showed that, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the 
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the mean precipitation will increase by 
 31% and 26%, respectively. The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the 
 baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 1.5°C (A2) and 1.3°C (B2), and Tmin by 1.7°C (A2) 
 and 1.5°C (B2) by 2100. The results also illustrate that in all scenarios, water consumption 
 would rise and that this need will not be satisfied, and the pressure on water resources will 
 intensify, resulting in a water shortage. The findings show that future water demand under the 
 influence of climate change is projected to exceed 210 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. 
 The findings show that while the evaluations of the recommended adaption techniques are 
 effective, they are not enough to guarantee the Ghba subbasin's water sustainability.

Pre-feasibility Study and Design of a Multipurpose Reservoir

“…The proceeding tables show the projected per capita average domestic water demand for H project. In addition to the already discussed factors which influence the quantity of water consumption, climatic of the area is also directly related to the consumption and for this reason, the design criteria consider three climatic group [24,25]. Hence to consider climatic conditions, factors are adopted and…”