Assessment of increase in forest fire risk in Russia till the late 21st century based on scenario experiments with fifth-generation climate models

Sherstyukov, B. G.; Sherstyukov, Artem

doi:10.3103/s1068373914050021

Cited by 31 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Future projections of changing disturbance risk in Russia are rare and usually only consider fire danger. Sherstyukov and Sherstyukov (2014) analysed how fire danger expressed through the Nesterov index changes across an ensemble of 31 climate models following RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The length of the season with fire danger increases by 10 to 20 days throughout the country for the period 2041-2060 compared to 1980-2000 and at the end of the century (2080-2090) at least an additional 20 fire risk days (and locally up to 50 days) were projected for the European part of Russia, West Siberia, and the south and mid-latitudes of East Siberia.…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Russian forests and climate change

Georgy

Pekka²,

Lindner³

et al. 2020

What Science Can Tell Us

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Russian forests and climate change

Georgy

Pekka²,

Lindner³

et al. 2020

What Science Can Tell Us

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recent studies have indicated that the forest-fire danger will also most likely increase in Finland due to global warming (Kilpeläinen et al, 2010;Lehtonen et al, 2014b; H. M. , as well as in neighbouring Russia (Sherstyukov and Sherstyukov, 2014); whereas Yang et al (2015) concluded that northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire in the future. These studies were based either on multi-model mean response (Kilpeläi-nen et al, 2010;Lehtonen et al, 2014b;Sherstyukov and Sherstyukov, 2014) or basically only on one climate model (H. M. Yang et al, 2015). Moreover, only Yang et al (2015) used simulated climate data on a daily timescale, making it possible to take predicted changes in climate variability into account when assessing the changes in forest-fire danger.…”

Section: Lehtonen Et Al: Risk Of Large-scale Fires In Boreal Forementioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

Lehtonen

Venäläinen

Kämäräinen

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the intermodel variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantilemapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

show abstract

“…In response to global warming, the forest-fire danger is generally projected to increase across the circumboreal region (e.g., Flannigan et al, 2009;Wotton et al, 2010;Shvidenko and Schepaschenko, 2013;Sherstyukov and Sherstyukov, 2014). This is particularly due to enhanced evaporation in a warmer climate.…”

Section: Forest Firesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Rutgersson

Kjellström

Haapala

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and they can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared and to save human lives and to invest in adaptation options. Natural Hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. We here summarise existing knowledge of extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with the focus on past 200 years, as well as future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructures, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large scale atmospheric circulation to climate change, but also concerning specific events, for example, occurrences of marine heat waves and small-scale variability of precipitation. Suggestions for future research includes further development of high-resolution Earth System models, and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to expected impact of climate change, changes are expected for sea-level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase) and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding and extreme waves) the change depends on the area and time period studies.

show abstract

Assessment of increase in forest fire risk in Russia till the late 21st century based on scenario experiments with fifth-generation climate models

Cited by 31 publications

References 1 publication

Russian forests and climate change

Russian forests and climate change

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About