Assessment of Intra-Seasonal Variability and Trends of Precipitations in a Climate Change Framework in West Africa

Tore, Daniel Bio; Alamou, Adéchina Eric; Obada, Ezéchiel; Biao, Eliezer Iboukoun; Zandagba, Esdras Babadjidé Josué

doi:10.4236/acs.2022.121011

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Nokoué lake is more influenced by the hydrology of the central part of Benin, where the main basin of the Ouémé river is located [29]. This region is characterized by a single rainy season with peak precipitation occurring between July and October [29,30]. The period from September to October is when the maximum flow enters Nokoué lake.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Lake Nokoué Water Levels Using Long Short-Term Memory Network

Dabire,

Ezin,

Firmin

2024

Preprint

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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of lake Nokoue in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Lake Nokoue, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%