Assessment of multi-model climate projections of water resources over South America CORDEX domain

Llopart, Marta; Reboita, Michelle Simões; Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio da

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04990-z

Cited by 80 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…However, at regional scales, the situation may be different, as warming may result in more precipitation in one region and less in another. This lack of connection has been noted in other studies that attempted to evaluate such links in southern South America, where precipitation is projected to increase [2,67,69,70]. These results suggest that changes in precipitation would not be expected to affect annual amounts significantly.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 62%

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Observed and Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Core Crop Region of the Humid Pampa, Argentina

Müller

Lovino

Sgroi

2021

Climate

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The core crop region of the Humid Pampa is one of the most productive agricultural lands around the world and depends highly on climate conditions. This study assesses climate variability, climate extremes, and observed and projected climate changes there, using 1911–2019 observations and CMIP5 model simulations. Since 1970, the annual mean temperature has risen by 1 °C and the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures by 2 and 0.5 °C, respectively. The frequency of warm days and nights increased, and cold days and nights decreased. Heatwaves became longer and more intense, and cold waves decreased with less frost events. Annual precipitation increased by 10% from 1911, mainly in summer, and years with excess precipitation outnumbered those with a deficit. Both intense precipitation events and consecutive dry days grew, suggesting more annual precipitation falling on fewer days. Projections show a warming of 1 ºC by 2035, regardless of the scenario. From then on until 2100, mean temperature will increase by 2 and 3–3.5 °C in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Annual precipitation will grow 8 and 16% from current values by 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. No major precipitation changes are projected in the RCP2.6 scenario.

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Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…Several studies have shown that globally averaged precipitation increases with warming [2,3,67,68]. However, at regional scales, the situation may be different, as warming may result in more precipitation in one region and less in another.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed and Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Core Crop Region of the Humid Pampa, Argentina

Müller

Lovino

Sgroi

2021

Climate

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“…Norte (Guishard et al, 2009), na costa leste da Austrália (Dowdy et al, 2011;Pepler et al, 2016) (Marengo et al, 2010;Kruger et al, 2009;Reboita et al, 2014;Llopart et al, 2020) Uma climatologia mais longa e utilizando pressão ao nível do mar para identificar ciclones na reanálise do NCEP (Kalnay et al, 1996) McDonald, 2011;Zappa et al, 2013). Embora menos frequentes, os ciclones de verão no futuro tendem a ser maiores e mais intensos (Lehmann et al, 2014;Akperov et al, 2019).…”

Section: Revisão Bibliográfica 21 Ciclones E Classificaçãounclassified

“…No entanto, em escala regional é possível identificar sinal oposto, ou seja, de tendência de aumento da velocidade do vento associada ao total de ciclones (Leckebusch e Ulbrich, 2004;Zappa et al, 2013) Além disso, os autores encontraram que a intensidade média da precipitação associada com os ciclones apresentou tendência de aumento no clima futuro, o que estaria de acordo com outras análises para outras regiões (Hawcroft et al, 2018;Kodama et al, 2019). Portanto, as projeções analisadas por Reboita et al (2020) indicam que no clima futuro poderá ocorrer uma expansão da chuva mais intensa nas imediações das principais regiões ciclogenéticas do Hemisfério Sul.…”

Section: Revisão Bibliográfica 21 Ciclones E Classificaçãounclassified

“…A projeção de decréscimo na frequência de Medicanes também é encontrada em simulações de modelos regionais(Walsh et al, 2014;Romero et al, 2017; Tous et al., 2016). Em face destes resultados, Romero e Emanuel (2017) discutiram que não existe um sinal muito claro de tendências futuras desde que o número total de tempestades muda muito pouco, enquanto as projeções de forma repetida indicam uma maior frequência de Medicanes nas categorias entre moderado a violento.Para a bacia do Atlântico Sul há análises de projeções climáticas investigando o total de ciclones(Kruger et al, 2012;Reboita et al, 2018; Gramcianinov, 2018;Reboita et al, 2020) ou então de ciclones tropicais(Roberts et al, 2014). Em particular,Roberts et al (2014) classificou ciclones tropicais nos GCMs do CMIP5, encontrando em GCMs com grade mais refinada ciclones tropicais no leste do sudeste do Brasil.…”

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Ciclones e ciclones subtropicais sobre o sudoeste do Oceano Atlântico Sul: projeções climáticas e ventos associados

Jesús¹

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Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: A CORDEX‐based study

Spinoni

Barbosa

Bucchignani

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21 st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5° to 4°C).Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, i.e. more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought.For SSP5 (fossil-fueled development) at GWL 4°C, approximately 2•10 6 km 2 of forests and croplands (respectively 6% and 11%) and 1.5•10 6 km 2 of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17•10 6 km 2 of forests (49%), 6•10 6 km 2 of pastures (78%), and 12•10 6 km 2 of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.

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Assessment of multi-model climate projections of water resources over South America CORDEX domain

Cited by 80 publications

References 62 publications

Observed and Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Core Crop Region of the Humid Pampa, Argentina

Observed and Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Core Crop Region of the Humid Pampa, Argentina

Ciclones e ciclones subtropicais sobre o sudoeste do Oceano Atlântico Sul: projeções climáticas e ventos associados

Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: A CORDEX‐based study

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