Assessment of multiple climate change effects on plantation forests in New Zealand

Watt, Michael S.; Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.; Moore, John R.; Pearce, H. Grant; Bulman, L. S.; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G.; Melia, Nathanael

doi:10.1093/forestry/cpy024

Cited by 39 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…For example, climatic conditions for Pinus radiata are projected to become less suitable in northern regions and more suitable in southern and upland regions (Fig. 3), a pattern that likely a result of warming temperatures and is consistent with results from ecophysiological models (Watt et al 2019). Even those species such as Pinus contorta that had more significant reductions in their potential distributions still retain large areas that are climatically suitable (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Future climates are predicted to alter the potential distributions of non-native conifer species in New Zealand

Etherington¹,

Peltzer²,

Wyse³

2022

NZJE

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Non-native conifers constitute a significant threat to the ecology and biodiversity of many of New Zealand's native ecosystems and species. From the top down, the potential distributions of non-native conifer species are governed by climate suitability, which alongside variables such as the availability of suitable habitats and a source of propagules determines whether an area of land will be susceptible to invasion by a given species. Here, we undertook a novel study to quantify potential distributions as defined by climate suitability for all 55 non-native conifer species in New Zealand using ecological niche modelling. Using current and future climate data, we then predicted how climate change may affect the potential distributions of these species. For most conifer species currently of concern from a management perspective, the total potential distribution is predicted to decline in future climates, with the largest reductions occurring for Pinus contorta. However, the climatically suitable land area for species such as Pinus pinaster and Pinus patula is predicted to increase in the future, while for species such as Pinus radiata future losses of suitable climate space in the North Island are approximately balanced by gains in the South Island. Although there is a great deal of variation at the individual species level, the vast majority of New Zealand will have climate suitable for a non-native conifer species both now and in the future. While data and methodological limitations associated with ecological niche modelling means we are more confident about increases than decreases in potential distributions, our results can be used to guide the management of non-native conifers in New Zealand and contribute to invasion risk assessments for these species. Our data and methodology can also be used to contribute to invasion risk modelling in other areas of these conifer species' introduced ranges throughout the Southern Hemisphere.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Future climates are predicted to alter the potential distributions of non-native conifer species in New Zealand

Etherington¹,

Peltzer²,

Wyse³

2022

NZJE

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“…Serious consideration should be given to monitoring flows of other undammed rivers in the region to provide managers with a simple estimate of forest fire risk and encourage other researchers to explore the relationship between historical river flow records and landscape fire activity. We suspect this approach of using river levels may be transferable to other high rainfall environments globally, which are likely to be increasingly impacted by forest fires due to climate change [36,38,39]. An important constraint with using river flows is it is likely most effective where soil moisture and river flows are tightly coupled (Figure 3).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

River Flows Are a Reliable Index of Forest Fire Risk in the Temperate Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia

Bowman

Williamson

2021

Fire

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Fire risk can be defined as the probability that a fire will spread across a landscape, that therefore determines the likely area burnt by a wildfire. Reliable monitoring of fire risk is essential for effective landscape management. Compilation of fire risk records enable identification of seasonal and inter-annual patterns and provide a baseline to evaluate the trajectories in response to climate change. Typically, fire risk is estimated from meteorological data. In regions with sparse meteorological station coverage environmental proxies provide important additional data source for estimating past and current fire risk. Here, we use a 60-year record of daily flows (ML day−1 past a fixed-point river gauge) from two rivers (Franklin and Davey) in the remote Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) to characterize seasonal patterns in fire risk in temperate Eucalyptus forests and rainforests. We show that river flows are strongly related to landscape soil moisture estimates derived from down-scaled re-analysis of meteorological data available since 1990. To identify river flow thresholds where forests are likely to burn, we relate river flows to known forest fires that have occurred in the previously defined ecohydrological domains that surround the Franklin and Davey catchments. Our analysis shows that the fire season in the TWWHA is centered on February (70% of all years below the median river flow threshold), with shoulders on December-January and March. Since 1954, forest fire can occur in at least one month for all but four summers in the ecohydrological domain that includes the Franklin catchment, and since 1964 fire could occur in at least one month in every summer in the ecohydrological domain that includes the Davey catchment. Our analysis shows that managers can use river flows as a simple index that indicates landscape-scale forest fire risk in the TWWHA.

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“…The narratives recorded by Stone and Langer present the quotidian nature of fire, it's lighting and care, and also awareness of the hazardous nature of uncotrolled fire. Modern fire regimes have seen an increase in the frequency of wildfires in New Zealand (Anderson et al, 2008), and Watt et al (2019) argue this risk will increase by over 70 per cent in 2040, and over 80 per cent by 2090. Tepley et al (2016) found the high flammability of vegetation that develops after fire-scrubby mānuka (Leptospermum scoparium) and kānuka (Kunzea ericoides)-and the long time needed for forest recovery were key to determining which regions may be near a tipping point from relatively minor changes in land-use or climate change.…”

Section: Traditional Indigenous Management Of Forests and Biodiversitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Indigenous Knowledges of forest and biodiversity management: how the watchfulness of Māori complements and contributes to disaster risk reduction

Lambert

Mark-Shadbolt

2021

AlterNative: An International Journal of Indigenous Peoples

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The United Nations Sendai Framework 2015-30 for disaster risk reduction (DRR) reaffirms the role of Indigenous Knowledges (IK) as complementing and contributing to more effective DRR. This hard won space for IK comes as Indigenous communities voluntarily contribute to the local management of disasters, including wildfire and threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems. The effectiveness of Indigenous practices in addressing hazards is based on traditional knowledges and empirical observations that inform active roles in environmental management. However, it is still not clear how IK complements and contributes to DRR. This article analyses interviews with elders, researchers, and community members and identifies how mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) on forests and biodiversity is embodied to inform Indigenous watchfulness as a tactical approach in contributing to more effective DRR strategies.

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Assessment of multiple climate change effects on plantation forests in New Zealand

Cited by 39 publications

References 87 publications

Future climates are predicted to alter the potential distributions of non-native conifer species in New Zealand

Future climates are predicted to alter the potential distributions of non-native conifer species in New Zealand

River Flows Are a Reliable Index of Forest Fire Risk in the Temperate Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia

Indigenous Knowledges of forest and biodiversity management: how the watchfulness of Māori complements and contributes to disaster risk reduction

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