Assessment of performance of the regional climate model (RegCM4.6) to simulate winter rainfall in the north of Morocco: The case of Tangier-Tétouan-Al-Hociema Region

Boulahfa, Imane; ElKharrim, M.; Mohamed, Nasser Mohamed Abdel Wahab; Beroho, Mohamed; Batmi, Abdeladim; Halimi, Rachid El; Maâtouk, Mustapha; Aboumaria, Khadija

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17473

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…For this purpose it is necessary to investigate such pairs of settlements that are very distant from each other, so that the meteorological connection between them is practically absent. Our calculations give ρ(R (21) , R (31) ) = −0.016 for the Rostov-on-Don -Yakutsk pair. The presence of relationships between other settlements under consideration and Yakutsk is shown in the table 2.…”

Section: Forecast Results In the Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…In this section we shall consider the issue of the convergence rate of the forecast of the meteorological state of the atmosphere based on the regional climatic model RegCM 4.9 [18], which is deployed in Volgograd State University [15,10]. We use latest current version of the RegCM 4 [18,19,20,21]. The coordinates of the center of our numerical grid in the base model are (48°42 ′ .…”

Section: Forecast Results In the Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimates of the accuracy and rate of convergence of short-term meteorological forecasts using the regional climate model RegCM4

Tertychnaya,

Khoperskov

2023

E3S Web Conf.

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We use the regional climate model RegCM 4.9 for the territory of Southern Russia to estimate the accuracy of meteorological forecasts. The errors of meteorological and climatic forecasts is due to complex non-equilibrium physicochemical processes in the components of the Earth's geosystem, which are characterized by gasdynamic and thermal instabilities at various spatial scales. A method for assessing the convergence of forecasts based on time series analysis is discussed for various localities. The reliability of forecasts for temperatures up to 1 degree can lie within 5-10 days for the south of the European part of Russia, depending on the predominance of cyclonic or anticyclonic atmospheric movements. The interval of acceptable precipitation forecast, as a rule, does not exceed 2-4 days for an area of about 104km2 and greatly decreases with decreasing area of the region under consideration. The annual volume of precipitation correlates in the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Volgograd at the level of 70 percent with each other. The correlation between the Rostov-on-Don City or the Volgograd City on the one hand, and the cities Astrakhan, Stavropol, Elista on the other hand, turns out to be significantly less, ranging from 30 to 40 percent.

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Section: Forecast Results In the Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Forecast Results In the Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of the accuracy and rate of convergence of short-term meteorological forecasts using the regional climate model RegCM4

Tertychnaya,

Khoperskov

2023

E3S Web Conf.

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“…This study shows that both intensity and duration of droughts show an increasing trend over different time scales. This observed phenomenon is likely due to reduced precipitation levels, a consequence attributed to climate change, as posited by scientific works such as those by (Beroho et al 2020) and (Boulahfa et al 2023). Specifically, temperature emerges as a key determinant of water availability dynamics, mainly by regulating evapotranspiration rates.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Application of Statistical Functions for Rainfall Distribution Modelling and Spi Calculation in Mediterranean Watershed

BEROHO,

OUALLALI,

EL HALIMI

et al. 2024

AgricultForest

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Drought indices are one of the most widely used methods for drought monitoring because of their ease of application and interpretation. The most commonly used drought index method is the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, which uses precipitation as an input. The performance of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is affected by the choice of an incorrect probability distribution function, which can distort index values, exaggerating or minimizing drought severity. This study aims to test the suitability of the statistical distribution functions proposed by the Bootstrap model, which estimates the closest probability distribution for calculating the SPI at time scales (TS) of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Daily rainfall data collected at the Dar Chaoui meteorological station were used for the period 2000-2021. Distribution function parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) method and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method and then confirmed using the Bootstrap method. The results show several extremely dry picks, especially in the 9-and 12-month time scales.

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“…RegCM is a regional climate model initially created by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and currently maintained by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) [15][16][17][18][19]. It has been extensively employed in regional climate research across various regions worldwide and has been selected as one of the RCMs for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28].…”

Section: The Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of RegCM4.7.1 Simulation with the Station Observation Data of Georgia, 1985–2008

Elizbarashvili,

Amiranashvili,

Elizbarashvili

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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The global climate change, driven by natural processes and increasing human activities, is especially significant for Georgia. The region is experiencing increases in temperature, desertification, redistribution of precipitation, and a rise in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Georgia’s complex topography and its proximity to the Black and Caspian seas make it essential to employ high-resolution regional climate models to evaluate future climate change risks. In this study, we examine the results of a high-resolution simulation of mean and extreme precipitation and temperature using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4.7.1 for the period 1985–2008, providing an initial evaluation of the model’s performance for the territory of Georgia. The model domain (1524 km; 2388 km) encompasses the entirety of Georgia’s territory and surrounding regions. The simulation, conducted at a 12 km horizontal grid spacing using ERA5 data as boundary conditions, indicates that the least discrepancy between observed and modeled average annual temperatures and precipitation, falling within a −1 to 1 °C and −200 to 200 mm range, respectively, was observed at most stations of eastern Georgia. The largest disparities between the model and observed average annual precipitation totals were noted along the Black Sea coast, in the Kolkheti Lowland, and in some high mountain stations in western Georgia. The most significant differences in average annual temperatures between the model and observations were observed in Ambrolauri, Mt. Sabueti, and Dedoplistskaro. For Georgia territory, such a long run with such a high resolution using ERA5 as boundary conditions was conducted for the first time. Overall, the modeling results are quite satisfactory, providing a solid basis for the successful utilization of the regional climate model RegCM4.7.1 with the selected parameterization for modeling monthly mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in Georgia.

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Assessment of performance of the regional climate model (RegCM4.6) to simulate winter rainfall in the north of Morocco: The case of Tangier-Tétouan-Al-Hociema Region

Cited by 10 publications

References 43 publications

Estimates of the accuracy and rate of convergence of short-term meteorological forecasts using the regional climate model RegCM4

Estimates of the accuracy and rate of convergence of short-term meteorological forecasts using the regional climate model RegCM4

Application of Statistical Functions for Rainfall Distribution Modelling and Spi Calculation in Mediterranean Watershed

Comparison of RegCM4.7.1 Simulation with the Station Observation Data of Georgia, 1985–2008

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