Assessment of probabilistic distributed factors influencing renewable energy supply for hotels using Monte-Carlo methods

Abstract

This paper investigates the use of renewable energies to supply hotels in island regions. The aim is to evaluate the effect of weather and occupancy fluctuations on the sensitivity of investment criteria. The sensitivity of the chosen energy system is examined using a Monte Carlo simulation considering stochastic weather data, occupancy rates and energy needs. For this purpose, algorithms based on measured data are developed and applied to a case study on the Canary Islands.The results underline that electricity use in hotels is by far the largest contributor to their overall energy cost. For the invested hotel on the Canary Islands, the optimal share of renewable electricity generation is found to be 63 %, split into 67 % photovoltaic and 33 % wind power. Furthermore, a battery is used to balance the differences between day and night. It is found, that the results are sensitive to weather fluctuations as well as economic parameters to about the same degree. The results underline the risk caused by using reference time series for designing energy systems. The Monte Carlo method helps to define the mean of the annuity more precisely and to rate the risk of fluctuating weather and occupancy better.

Relationships between Hotel and Restaurant Electricity Consumption and Tourism in 11 European Union Countries

“…In addition to solar energy, other studies have pointed out the possibilities of using refuse derived biomass fuel energy for hot water and heating systems in the hotel industry [79], and combining solar and wind energy, depending on weather conditions. Thus, for example, the study by Meschede et al [80], which referred to Canary Islands' hotels, established that the optimal share of renewable electricity generation is 63%, of which 67% was photovoltaic, and 33% wind power.…”

Visitors’ preferences of renewable energy options in “green” hotels

“…Energy harvested by wind power follows in second place [12,46]. In some cases, this technology is recommended as more advantageous than solar-based produced renewable energy [47].…”

“…The importance of the types of renewable energies used in "green" hotels is growing in specific context such as islands [12], wilderness [61] or other remote locations [59,62]. From previous studies, it is rather apparent, that renewable energy is preferred as compared to using common resources like gas or coal [63] or nuclear power supply [64].…”

“…Hotels and other accommodation facilities are then becoming the ideal locations for alternative energy resource use [6,7]. The implementation of renewable energy technology into the operation of accommodation facilities is, on one hand highly sought after [8], and among the business owners accepted [9], but on the other hand there are many existing obstacles of the development [10][11][12][13][14].…”

Design of Robust Total Site Heat Recovery Loops via Monte Carlo Simulation

“…Atkins et al [10] highlighted the optimal sizing of an ST as a prerequisite for economic efficiency and operability. Moreover, Meschede et al [18] applied MC methods to highlight the risk caused by using a single reference time series for designing energy systems. The MC method helps to define the mean of the heat recovery rate (HRR) for different tank sizes more precisely, and to better assess the risk of fluctuating heating and cooling load due to stochastic influences [19].…”