Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2025 in eight African countries

Oort, P.A.J. van; Saito, Kazuki; Tanaka, Atsuko; Amovin-Assagba, Eyram; Bussel, L.G.J. van; Wart, Justin Van; Groot, Hugo de; Ittersum, M.K. van; Cassman, Kenneth G.; Wopereis, M.C.S.

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2015.01.002

Cited by 131 publications

(104 citation statements)

References 37 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Africa is far from self‐sufficient in rice and this situation is projected to worsen in the future (Balasubramanian, Sie, Hijmans, & Otsuka, ; Van Ittersum et al., ; Van Oort, Saito et al., ). Keeping up with growing population and per‐capita rice consumption will require substantial yield gap closure and area expansion, or continued import dependency.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

Oort

Zwart

2017

Global Change Biology

207

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

Oort

Zwart

2017

Global Change Biology

207

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Countries in this sub-region share a common history of traditional rice consumption [30] (Saito et al, 2014) and common trends of increasing demand for rice caused by rapid population, urban, and income growth, which is not matched by domestic production and distribution capacity [31,32]. Nigeria has the highest concentration of studies (16), while Burkina Faso (8), Ghana (8), Senegal (6), Benin (6), Tanzania (6), Madagascar (6), Niger (6), Cote d'lvoire (5), Uganda (4), Mali (5), and Togo (4) were also often researched.…”

Section: Literature Characterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a study on Nigeria, Johnson et al [54] proposed an argument in favor of creating an enabling environment for the private sector to invest in rice processing. Moreover, Van oort et al [32] argue that while most sub-Saharan countries are far from being self-sufficient in food production, open markets and the expansion of imports will be necessary to fill the consumption-production gap.…”

Section: Development Policies and Vulnerability Of Rice Value Chainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, it is apparent that the academic debate on rice development policies, particularly the assessment of different policies and policy approaches (protectionism versus liberalization), strongly depends on the policy objective that is explicitly or implicitly set for rice development policies. Thus, scholars have analyzed policies on improving the self-sufficiency of the national rice sector (Van oort et al [32]), reducing price volatility (Minot,[63]), supporting low-income farmers (Nicita et al [68]), or increasing efficiency along the value chain (Demont, [31]). These are distinct policy goals that may result in diverse policies, the assessment of which is therefore highly dependent on the development priorities set for the rice sector in a specific country or region.…”

Section: Development Policies and Vulnerability Of Rice Value Chainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Vulnerability of Rice Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review

Terdoo

Feola

2016

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rice is one of the most important food crops in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change, variability, and economic globalization threatens to disrupt rice value chains across the subcontinent, undermining their important role in economic development, food security, and poverty reduction. This paper maps existing research on the vulnerability of rice value chains, synthesizes the evidence and the risks posed by climate change and economic globalization, and discusses agriculture and rural development policies and their relevance for the vulnerability of rice value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. Important avenues for future research are identified. These include the impacts of multiple, simultaneous pressures on rice value chains, the effects of climate change and variability on parts of the value chain other than production, and the forms and extent to which different development policies hinder or enhance the resilience of rice value chains in the face of climatic and other pressures.

show abstract

“…Sole crop models are used to analyse yield potentials and yield gaps, for instance for rice, wheat and maize (Boling et al, 2010;Liang et al, 2011;Laborte et al, 2012;van Ittersum et al, 2013). They may also be used to study the resource allocation at farm or regional levels (Lu et al, 2004;van Oort et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On yield gains and yield gaps in wheat-maize intercropping : opportunities for sustainable increases in grain production

Gou¹

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Intercropping is the cultivation of two or more crop species simultaneously in the same field, while relay intercropping means that the growing periods of the crop species are only partially overlapping. Intercropping has advantages with respect to productivity, resource capture, build-up of soil organic matter, and pest and disease suppression. This thesis aims to quantify and explain the yield advantages in wheat-maize relay intercropping and to assess the importance of intercropping for food production and land use efficiency.Wheat-maize intercropping had land equivalent ratios around or above one in two experiments in the Netherlands. Wheat in border rows showed major yield increases, and this yield increase was due to increases in the number of tillers per plant and the number of kernels per ear. The yield advantage of intercropped wheat was associated with a high radiation interception and radiation use efficiency (RUE). Under Dutch growing conditions, maize performance in the intercrop was constrained. Intercropping had a negative effect on the yield per plant and radiation use efficiency of maize. A strip intercrop model was developed, parameterized and tested with data on wheat-maize intercropping in the Netherlands. The model simulates radiation interception and growth in relay-strip intercrops with two species in different planting configurations. The model also allows simulating the consequences of border row effects for total system productivity. Bayesian analysis was applied to calibrate radiation use efficiency of wheat and maize in sole crops and intercrop.Intercropped wheat had higher a RUE than sole wheat, while intercropped maize had a lower RUE than sole maize. Intercropped maize had less favourable leaf traits (e.g. nitrogen content) during the flowering stage than sole maize in 2014, but the leaves in the intercrop had a higher photosynthetic rate than those in the sole crop. Possible explanations for this finding include differences between sole and mixed crops in water acquisition from soil, light distribution in the canopy, nitrogen distribution within the leaf and the contribution of the ear leaf to the growth of the cob. The low radiation use efficiency in intercropped maize may relate to nitrogen deficiency during grain filling. New concepts for potential yield, yield gain and yield gap in intercropping were developed in this thesis. Using crop model simulations and farm survey data, those concepts were operationalized in the context of wheat and maize production in an oasis area (Zhangye city) in northwest China. Wheat-maize intercropping resulted in substantial yield gains under potential and actual growing conditions. A comparison of potential and actual yields indicated a yield gap of 33% for sole wheat, 49% for sole maize, 15% for intercropped wheat, and 51% for intercropped maize. The land use analysis showed that discontinuing the use of intercropping in this region will decrease grain production substantially.Overall, this thesis studied the growth and productivity of ...

show abstract

Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2025 in eight African countries

Cited by 131 publications

References 37 publications

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

The Vulnerability of Rice Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review

On yield gains and yield gaps in wheat-maize intercropping : opportunities for sustainable increases in grain production

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About