Assessment of Risk of Cholera in Haiti following Hurricane Matthew

Abstract

Damage to the inferior and fragile water and sanitation infrastructure of Haiti after Hurricane Matthew has created an urgent public health emergency in terms of likelihood of cholera occurring in the human population. Using satellite-derived data on precipitation, gridded air temperature, and hurricane path and with information on water and sanitation (WASH) infrastructure, we tracked changing environmental conditions conducive for growth of pathogenic vibrios. Based on these data, we predicted and validated the likelihood of cholera cases occurring past hurricane. The risk of cholera in the southwestern part of Haiti remained relatively high since November 2016 to the present. Findings of this study provide a contemporary process for monitoring ground conditions that can guide public health intervention to control cholera in human population by providing access to vaccines, safe WASH facilities. Assuming current social and behavioral patterns remain constant, it is recommended that WASH infrastructure should be improved and considered a priority especially before 2017 rainy season.

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's scientific achievements and societal contributions: reviewing four years of advanced rain and snow observations

“…Consequently, satellite precipitation estimates, often in NRT, are increasingly becoming the standard precipitation data source in these environments. The IMERG NRT data have been used to track environmental conditions on the ground in order to help predict and validate the risk of cholera infection, for example, as shown in Figure for Haiti immediately after Hurricane Matthew in October 2016 (Khan et al ., ). Studies using TRMM have shown that areas of wetter conditions in the higher elevations of Uganda are often associated with increased incidence of Black Plague (MacMillan et al ., ; Monaghan et al ., ).…”

“…In terms of algorithm and products for extended operations, the mission seeks to address the following major topics: lengthen the temporal record by inter-calibrating datasets back to 1998 (for the complete TRMM record, Figure modified from Khan et al (2017) expected release in 2018), extend GPM merged constellation algorithms pole to pole and improve their morphing process, and improve the estimates of falling snow and light rainfall. One critical issue is to improve space-borne estimates of precipitation over orographic and other complex surface features.…”

High cholera vaccination coverage following emergency campaign in Haiti: Results from a cluster survey in three rural Communes in the South Department, 2017

“…Where there are shortages, modelling suggests even a single dose has demonstrable efficacy and may be important in outbreak control [15]. This high-coverage two-dose campaign likely contributed to preventing cholera cases in the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, [16], however protection is unlikely to last beyond three years [17] and the effect of a six-month delay between doses is not known. Vaccine effectiveness remains to be estimated, and further studies will be important to fully evaluate this intervention.…”

Satellite Based Predictability of Water Sensitive Infectious Diseases

“…Cholera transmits via drinking water contaminated with Vibrio cholerae bacteria, which is the main causative agent of cholera (Bentivoglio and Pacini, 1995). For an epidemic cholera outbreak to occur in a region, broadly three criterions are required to be fulfilled: 1) presence of V. cholerae in waterbodies, the causative agent of cholera, near to high population settlement 2) triggering hydroclimatic condition for the growth and proliferation of vibrios, 3) a fragile or broken water and sanitation accessibility or in other words WASH infrastructure for the transmission of vibrios to human population (Khan et al, 2017. V. cholerae is known for its ability to cause pandemics, thereby it is considered as unique among the diarrheal pathogens (Austin, 2010 andFaruque et al, 2004).…”

“…This study produces a R-JAVA based cholera forecasting software with user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI). The hydroclimatic risk assessment algorithm (Khan et al, 2017) is implemented and can be simulated using this software.…”