Assessment of Runoff and Water temperature variations under RCP Climate Change Scenario in Yongdam dam watershed, South Korea

Abstract

The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyze climate change effects by using statistical trends and a watershed model in the Yongdam dam watershed. The annual average air temperature was found to increase with statistical significance. In particular, greater increases were observed in autumn. Also, this study was performed to evaluate the potential climate change in the streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model (HSPF) with RCP climate change scenarios. The streamflow of Geum river showed a decrease of 5.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in the baseline data for the 2040s and 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the streamflow showed a decrease in the summer and an increase in the winter. The water temperature of Geum river showed an average increase of 0.7~1.0°C. Especially, the water temperature of Geum river showed an increase of 0.3~0.5°C in the 2040s and 0.5~1.2°C in the 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the water temperature showed an increase in winter and spring, with a decrease in summer. Therefore, it was determined that a statistical analysis-based meteorological and quantitative forecast of streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model is necessary to assess climate change impact and to establish plans for future water resource management.

Evaluation of Non-Point Source Pollution Load Characteristics and Identifying Management Sub-Basin Area and Best Management Practices Using HSPF Model in Yongdam Dam Watershed

“…8,9) 또한, 용담댐 유역의 오염원은 점오염원에 비하여 비점 오염원이 대부분을 차지하고 있으며, 전통적인 경작에서 고소 득 작물재배로 전환되고 있어 농업비점 오염부하량의 증가와 더불어 축산농가 증가에 따른 축산계 오염부하량이 지속적으 로 상승할 것으로 전망되고 있다. 10) 최근 용담댐 유역을 대상 으로 토지피복 및 토양 특성에 따른 수문 영향 11) , 임상별로 수문에 미치는 영향 12) , 기후 변화에 따른 유량 변화 13,14) 여기서, T(NPS-dlpa) : 지점 i에서의 대표 유달부하 지수 (-) W(NPS-dlpa) i : 수질항목별 지점 i에서의 항목별 유달부하 (-) W(NPS-dlpa) min : 수질항목별 최소 유달부하량 (-) W(NPS-dlpa) max : 수질항목별 최대 유달부하량 (-) 또한, 각 소유역별로 BOD, SS, T-P 등 3개 항목의 와 HSPF Version 12 User's Manual 23) 에 제시된 범위에 해당하는 것으로 나타났다. 연구지역의 유량과 수질에 대한 보･검정은 US EPA 24) , Donigian 25,26) 에서 제시한 상대오차를 통해 모델의 효율성을 평가했을 때, 다음의…”